Monday, August 5, 2013

Jim Rickards Long Term Outlook

Mr. Rickards sees that we are heading towards the first of the four scenarios. Although he does not pretend to know the future (which nobody does evidently) he comes to his conclusion by analyzing the evolution. Up until now, based on the decisions and behaviour of policy makers, he believes there is enough evidence to believe that all signs point to a monetary collapse.

Just to clarify things, he adds, “there is nobody who really wants a collapse. The reason why it could happen has more to do with a basket of factors, including [but not limited to] the inherent instability of the monetary system, the inability of policy makers to correctly analyze the situation, wishful thinking, denial, delay, bad monetary science, wrong assessment of risk, etc.”

Is it too late to change direction and avoid a collapse? Mr. Rickards believes it is not; we can still avoid it. The key point, however, is that policy makers are not showing signs of understanding the seriousness of the situation and their policy outcomes. They neither show signs of reversing course and solving the underlying structural issues. Going forward, those are the most important signs to force a reversal of the path we are on.

Mr. Rickards adds to it that chaos is not the end of the analysis. In other words, suppose the world will face a collapse it will undoubtedly result in rather draconian executive orders. We might end up in a form of a gold standard based on a gold backed SDR. A gold standard or an SDR standard are the two most likely outcomes of a collapse; a combination of both is also a realistic possibility.

- Source, Gold Silver Worlds: