Wednesday, July 2, 2014

I Expect a Pause in Taper Later This Year

I expect a pause in the taper later this year. But, look, this could run on well into 2015 but the problem is the scale of it.

In 2008, all we heard about was "too big to fail"; well, guess what, the five biggest banks in the U.S. today are bigger than they were in 2008. They have a larger percentage of the banking industry assets, their derivatives books are significantly bigger, you know, so the problem is that the whole thing is bigger, which means that... risk is an exponential function of scale; when you triple the system, you don't triple the risk, you increase it by a factor of ten or more and this is what we're up against, this is what we're facing.

Could start anywhere, could start in China.

- Source, James Rickards via a recent FXstreet interview

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