Friday, December 30, 2016

Jim Rickards: Trump’s Stimulus Plan Not Happening

Economist Jim Rickards appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” outlining his 2017 predictions for rate hikes, Trump stimulus, and the coming US recession. Rickards believes the markets are unwittingly pricing in a stimulus plan that will never materialize.

“Trump wants to cut taxes. Steve Bannon is talking to his advisors about a trillion dollars of infrastructure spending, cutting regulations. All of these things are viewed to be highly stimulative. That’s why the market is going up. Pharmaceuticals are going up on the repeal of Obamacare, banks going up on the repeal of Dodd-Frank.”

The markets and the Fed have the perception that tax cuts and spending will continue despite the realities of a fiscally conservative congress, a $20 trillion of debt and a 104% debt-to-GDP ratio.

“But here’s the point,” Rickards states, “the stimulus is not going to come… Congress has already said tax cuts have to be revenue neutral. That’s going to take away the simulative effect. They’re going to balk at more spending.”

While a March rate hike is likely, according to Rickards, the Fed will backpedal when the market corrects or when the next recession hits. “Then the Fed will backpedal from there, starting with forward guidance and perhaps a rate cut later in the year.”

In such a situation, the scramble to move assets into wealth-preserving instruments like physical gold and silver will begin again. 2016 saw this movement many times by investors looking for safe havens. If Rickards is correct in his predictions, 2017 is likely to be a repeat of the same.


Saturday, December 17, 2016

The Global Elites Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis


Oxford Club Radio 10.17.16 interviews Jim Rickards on his latest book: The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis.


Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Discussing the Elite Agenda & Trump Victory with Jim Rickards


We're always excited to get the biggest name in alternative investing news, Mr. James G. Rickards, and this time comes most opportune with the election around the corner. Jim gives his stunning prediction for a Trump victory and subsequent unavoidable world fiat currency crisis where the elite's agenda will be to implement the IMF SDR as the new world reserve currency. Don't miss this time sensitive info and how to protect yourself (gold to $10,000!) from it!


Saturday, December 10, 2016

Monetary Tricks No Longer Work - Jim Rickards


If you hold the keys-to-the-kingdom and someone comes along and request that you share those keys what are the odds you are going to honor such a request? Let's say you posses the power, financially and militarily, to bully whoever you would like, along with the keys-to-the-kingdom. 

Why would you even entertain the idea of sharing? If you already hold all the power why would you even entertain any such idea? Odds are, not going to happen.

- Source, The Daily Coin

Saturday, December 3, 2016

They're Going To Lock Down The System


This week, seasoned financier, risk manager and author Jim Rickards returns to the program to share the predictions from his new book The Road To Ruin: The Global Elite's Secret Plan For The Next Financial Crisis.

Rickards warns of a coming confidence boundary in central bank omnipotence. Once breached, trust and belief in the central banking cartel quickly vaporizes. Rickards predicts that boundary will be crossed by 2018 or sooner; and when it is, the entire financial system will go into lockdown, freezing access to our money.


Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Jim Rickards: How to make a fortune before 2018


Jim Rickards confronts the James Bond conspiracies and reveals how to make a fortune through crises, crashes, gold, stocks and a Donald Trump victory. Recorded at Sydney’s Custodian Vaults with The Capital Network’s Lelde Smits.


Saturday, November 26, 2016

Jim Rickards Describes Coming Shut Down of US Financial System

Jim Rickards,the chief global strategist at West Shore Group, appeared on Bloomberg Markets to discuss the next financial crisis. Rickards said he sees next US downturn approaching a tipping point soon. However, the Federal Reserve’s response to restoring financial solvency will be much different because there’s no place left to go with monetary policy.

“The next time, they’re not going to print the money because they’re tapped out,” he states. “They’re going to lock down the system.” In a move Rickards refers to at the “bail in, lock down” plan, large sections of the financial sector will be deactivated to avoid bank runs and complete collapse. Rickards describes some of the more likely scenarios:

“Money market funds will suspend redemptions, bank ATMs can be reprogrammed to give you $300 per day for gas and groceries; they can selectively shut down the banks. We saw it in Greece. We saw it in Cyprus; we’re seeing it today in India. The banks are closing. They’re out of cash.”

- Source, Schiff Gold


Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Jim Rickards: The Road To Ruin



In his latest book, Jim Rickards warns that the coming financial crisis will be unlike the 1998 and 2008 crises. There will be no massive money printing to pave over the crumbling system. Rickards joins us to discuss what to expect...and how to prepare.


- Source

Monday, November 14, 2016

7 Things You Need to Know: "New World Money" Goes Live Tomorrow

1) Is tomorrow THE day that the dollar “dies” and is replaced?

Tomorrow, Sept. 30, is when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially adds the Chinese yuan to its basket of currencies comprising its special drawing right (SDR). It has enormous long-term implications for the dollar.

Does that mean the dollar becomes worthless overnight? Of course not. Tomorrow’s event may not even make major headlines. You won’t hear about it in the news. And it won’t cause the dollar to crash immediately. This is a development with long-term implications, but in itself, it will not make waves. But that’s the point — the dollar will die — but with a whimper, not a bang.

The dollar replaced the British pound sterling as the world’s dominant currency last century. But it was a gradual process that took place between 1914 and 1944. It didn’t happen overnight, nor will SDRs replace the dollar overnight.

When you wake up October 1st, you won’t find anything noticeably different. You’ll still have dollars in your pocket, you’ll still get paid in dollars, those will be worth something.

But tomorrow will nonetheless be a very significant turning point. Membership in the exclusive SDR currency club has changed only once in the past 30 years. The SDR has been dominated by the “Big Four” (U.S., U.K., Japan and Europe) since the IMF abandoned the gold SDR in 1973. This is why inclusion of the Chinese yuan is so momentous.


2) Do I need to dump all of my dollars, stocks and other investments and get into gold?

No. I do believe you should own gold, and I believe it’s ultimately heading to $10,000 an ounce. But I don’t recommend you put any more than 10% of your investable money into gold, or any other asset for that matter. Some people say, “Jim Rickards recommends selling everything and going all into gold.” I don’t say that and I never have. You never want to put all your eggs in one basket.

I recommend a diversified portfolio that includes gold, fine art, raw land, cash, bonds, select stocks and some alternatives in strategies like global macro hedge funds and venture capital. You need to be nimble in today’s unpredictable macroeconomic environment. We provide guidance on these in my newsletter, Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence.

3) What do you mean when you say the “New World Money” goes live tomorrow? The SDR has been around since 1969…

It’s true, the SDR was invented in 1969. And there were a number of issues of SDRs in the 1970s. Indeed, the IMF has issued SDRs three times since their creation more than 40 years ago. Each time was linked to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar

In 1969, the French and others recognized the United States was printing too many dollars. At the time, foreigners could still exchange dollars for gold, and there was a run on Fort Knox. The IMF created the SDR to smooth the rough monetary seas, issuing 9.3 billion SDRs through 1972.

In 1979, U.S. inflation soared out of control, past 14%. Oil-producing countries fretted the value of their dollar reserves was plunging. The IMF issued 12.1 billion SDRs through 1981.

In 2009, in response to the Panic of 2008, the IMF issued 182.7 billion SDRs during August and September. That was the first time the IMF issued SDRs in almost 30 years. That was in response to the global liquidity crisis when it looked like the world’s central banks couldn’t act fast enough. So the IMF issued over $100 billion of SDRs.

But the Panic of 2008 changed everything. Central banks around the world expanded their balance sheets enormously to combat the crisis. The Fed’s balance sheet exploded from $800 pre-crisis to about $4 trillion today, for example. They won’t be able to respond the same way when the next crisis strikes, which I expect sooner rather than later. They’re out of powder.

The only financial institution with a balance sheet clean enough to respond to the crisis will be the IMF. The IMF acts like the “central bank of the world.” It will have to issue massive amounts of SDRs to hold the international monetary system together. The result will be the end of the dollar as the leading global reserve currency. That’s why today’s developments represents such a dramatic change from the past.

4) Do you expect a major market move when Chinese yuan is finally added to the SDR tomorrow?

I’m not forecasting that… but it wouldn’t surprise me if it happened. The economy is on the brink of recession. We’ve had a full year, 4 consecutive quarters, with average growth of about 1.2% and with some revisions that may even go lower. This is not just weak growth, it’s extraordinary weak, and dangerously close to recession.

Global trade has fallen dramatically. Stocks are in bubble territory and volatility is returning. You never know what event will cause a crash, but it could literally come at any time.

The point is, it could be tomorrow… it could be six months from now. The real question is: What are you waiting for? No one can time these things… and when the trigger happens it’ll be too late. How many warnings do you need?
5) Will tomorrow’s SDRs have a positive impact on the price of gold?

SDRs are inflationary. If you flood the market in dollars of SDRs, gold will spike dramatically, probably taking it to $10,000. Will that happen tomorrow? Again, probably not. But the trend is in place. What are you waiting for? You can expect that the dollar will be devalued by 50–80% in the coming years.

6) “Can I buy SDRs?”

Officially, no, you can’t. The IMF is the only institution that can print and distribute world money. Only its member states that are within its elite “basket” can freely exchange SDR as currency. Typically, SDR’s are used to take loans or make repayments made by the IMF. They are also used by its members central banks to sell in order to help currency reserves during times of economic crisis.

Now, it is true that a “private sector” version of SDRs will become available, called M-SDRs. The IMF has published a technical paper introducing the concept of a private SDR market. In the IMF’s vision, private companies and corporations can issue bonds denominated in SDRs. Who are the logical issuers of the bonds?

Probably multinational or multilateral organizations like the Asian Development Bank and maybe big corporations like IBM and General Electric. Who would buy these SDR-denominated bonds? Mostly sovereign wealth funds. China will be substantial buyers.

But the only main recourse for everyday investors is to own “synthetic” SDRs. I’ve put together a way to own an “unofficial” stake in SDRs. Not only is this “unofficial” way perfectly legal, it’s the only way I know of for any private citizen to get access.

7) What’s the next important step in this New World Money Development?

On Oct. 7, the IMF will hold its annual meeting in Washington, D.C., to consider additional steps to expand the role of SDRs and make China an integral part of the new world money order. But there’s another looming development that has implications for the adoption of SDRs…

The return of the BRICS.

“BRICS” is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which are among the largest emerging-market economies and make up about 22% of global GDP. Five years ago, discussion in international monetary circles was all about the rise of the BRICS. It appeared the BRICS would mount a serious challenge to U.S. dollar hegemony. Then the BRICS story went quiet in 2014–15. It looked like the BRICS story was fading in importance. But now that’s changing.

At the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Hangzhou, China earlier this month, BRICS made a very interesting demand. They may be 22% of the global economy, but they only hold 14.89% of the votes at the IMF.

Any individual country or group of countries with 15% has veto power over certain major IMF decisions, including the issuance of SDRs. Only one country has over 15% today, and that’s the United States. The BRICS are now demanding that their IMF vote move closer to their share of the world economy and past the 15% threshold.

If that happens, then the IMF will not be able to flood the world with SDRs in a liquidity crisis unless the BRICS agree. No doubt the BRICS will agree, but only if other steps are taken at the same time to destroy the privileged position of the U.S. dollar in global payments and reserves. The BRICS are back in town, and it has implications for the adoption of SDRs… and the dollar.

- Source James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Jim Rickards: This is the Elites Versus Everybody Else


Jim Rickards joins Max Keiser, one of the top financial reporters worldwide, for an in-depth discussion on his latest book The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis.

During the hard hitting discussion they get to the heart of elite constructs in which Rickards notes, “This is not left versus right. Conservative versus liberal. Those phony distinctions these days. This is the elites versus everybody else.”

Jim Rickards is a three-time best selling author that advises the U.S government on financial threats and was general counsel to one of the most influential hedge funds in history. He holds 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street.

Rickards then dives into historic analysis saying, “In 1998 Wall Street bailed out a hedge fund, in 2008 the central banks bailed out Wall Street, in 2018 (I am assuming a ten year tempo, but it could even be tomorrow – that’s the point) who is going to bail out the central banks?”

“Each bailout gets bigger than the one before. Who is bigger than the central banks? There is only one clean balance sheet left, that’s The International Monetary Fund (IMF).”

The best selling author goes on to note that, “The next crisis is going to be bigger than the central banks. They are going to have to turn to the IMF. The IMF has a printing press and they have the Special Drawing Rights (SDR)… I call it world money. They don’t want to call it that, but that’s what it is…”

In an interview that stands out above the crowd, the best selling author and economist candidly breaks down how the elites plan of action for the next phase of financial crisis could unfold.


Saturday, November 5, 2016

Only Days Until World Money Changes Forever

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has established a plan for its special drawing rights (SDR) valuation basket to be revised at midnight on September 30. This IMF plan has laid the foundations for a new monetary standard based on world money.

While these SDR plans might seem complex, they’re actually not complicated. People will make it complicated or make it sound confusing but the Federal Reserve has a printing press, they can print dollars. The IMF also has a printing press and can print SDRs. It’s just world money that could be handed out and could be used to cause inflation.

I am often asked, “What’s an SDR? If I had 100 SDRs how many dollars would that be worth? How many euros would that be worth?”

There’s a formula for determining that, and as of today there are 4 currencies in the formula: dollars, sterling, yen, and euros. Those are the 4 currencies that comprise in the SDR calculation. As of the close of business on September 30th, or in effect when we wake up October 1st, there’s going to be a fifth currency added, which is the Chinese yuan.

The Chinese yuan does not meet the typical SDR criteria, so it would not normally qualify. However, this is a political decision by the IMF attempting to get China on the bus. In the 1960s we had an expression, “you’re either on the bus or off the bus,” and right now China’s off the bus but as of September 30th they’re going to be “on the bus.” They’re going to be part of the SDR.

Does that mean the dollar becomes worthless overnight? Of course not. You’re going to wake up October 1st, you’ll still have dollars in your pocket, you’ll still get paid in dollars, those will be worth something, but it will be a very significant turning point.

We will look back on that date a few years from now we’ll look back on September 30th, 2016 and reflect, “That was the day the dollar began its demise.” Officially that’s when the Chinese yuan was put into the SDR and the SDR gained the backing it needs from the emerging markets, from China and from the BRICS, to become the new world money.

It is definitely possible to see that coming. It will play out in stages. It doesn’t happen overnight, but it is one of those turning points. There are a lot of way to get ready for this, but don’t wait until it happens when the whole world says, “too bad about the dollar.”

This will be a key turning point. It’s one of those days when it should prompt people, really starting now, but certainly not later than September 30th, to act.

Here’s the point. The SDR world money, as I mentioned, is a “basket.” Today there’s 4 parts of the basket. In the future there will be 5 parts. The one that has been designed, the synthetic SDR, has the 5 parts because we know China’s coming in, we even know what their percentage is going to be.

What the SDR does is it takes you out of the currency wars. A lot of people are getting whipped around, with volatility for which they’re not getting paid. They’re having occasional large losses based on the currency wars.

The currency wars are not going away. Because you’ve got all 5 major currencies, it neutralizes the currency war activity and gives you a plan going forward.

- Source, James Rickards via the Daily Reckoning

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Jim Rickards: Is now the right time to invest in gold?


Jim Rickards expects the currency wars to continue for at least another ten years. UNLESS the fiat system collapses underneath its own weight before that time. He sees gold as one of the only safe havens in this eventual collapse. The gold is moving into hands that won't be letting go anytime soon and the market is becoming increasingly less liquid.


Sunday, October 30, 2016

The Gold Chronicles With Jim Rickards - The Road to Ruin


Jim Rickards breaks down the fact of how dangerous the current financial system is. It faces a direct threat from the cyber warfare that is erupting behind the scenes. Physical gold is a safety net against this, it cannot be hacked, it cannot be wiped out!


Thursday, October 27, 2016

Jim Rickards: International Monetary System and Gold


Jim Rickards talks about the jawboning the FED is engaged in. This system is rigged and they cannot raise rates. The dollar and gold are caught in this gyrating cycle and eventually it will all come crashing down.

Monday, October 24, 2016

James Rickards Reveals IMF World Currency Crash Conspiracy, We Need The Gold Standard


Jim Rickards discusses the ongoing threat of cyber terrorism, the currency collapse that he see's coming and how the global economy is going to deal with all of these threats. Will we persevere, or will we collapse under our own weight?

Monday, October 17, 2016

The Dollar Will be Devalued, Are You Prepared?

There’s no doubt that the U.S. was the most powerful country in the world in the 1980–2000 period shown in the chart above. The Soviet Union was in terminal decline by 1987, and collapsed in 1991. China was still emerging and had a major setback with the Tiananmen Square uprising in 1989. Europe did not implement the euro until 1999. The U.S. was king of the hill.

When the U.S. wanted a weaker dollar in 1985, we just dictated that result to the world in the Plaza Accord. When the U.S. wanted to lock in the cheap dollar in 1987, we dictated that result also in the Louvre Accord. Market forces had nothing to do with it. Whatever the U.S. wanted, the U.S. got. Investors were just along for the ride.

Before the Plaza and Louvre Accords, there was the Smithsonian Agreement of December 1971. That was an agreement among the “Group of 10” (actually 11: U.S., U.K., Japan, Canada, France, West Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, Sweden and Switzerland) to devalue the dollar between 7% and 17% (depending on the currency pair in question).

This happened shortly after President Nixon suspended the conversion of dollars for gold on Aug. 15, 1971. Nixon thought this would be a temporary suspension and that the gold standard could be resumed once the devaluation was agreed.

The devaluation happened but the gold standard never returned. By January 1980, the dollar had devalued 95% when measured in the weight of gold.

Even before the Smithsonian Agreement, there was Harold Wilson’s 14% sterling devaluation (1967), the Bretton Woods Conference (1944), FDR’s gold confiscation and 60% dollar devaluation (1933), U.K. abandoning the gold standard (1931), and the Genoa Conference and the Gold Exchange Standard (1922).

The point is that monetary earthquakes happen from time to time. We just noted nine big ones in the past hundred years, but there were many others, including the sterling crisis of 1992 when George Soros broke the Bank of England, and the Tequila Crisis of 1994 when the Mexican peso devalued 50% in a matter of months.

These monetary earthquakes move in both directions. Sometimes the dollar is a huge winner (1980–85), and sometimes it loses a large part of its value (1971–80 and 1985–87). The key for investors is to be alert to behind-the-scenes plans of the global monetary elite and anticipate the direction of the next big move.

What will happen in the next five weeks is just as significant as any of the monetary earthquakes mentioned above. There are three major events happening in rapid sequence. Here’s the list:

  • On Sept. 4, the G20 leaders meet in Hangzhou, China
  • On Sept. 30, the yuan officially joins the SDR basket of currencies
  • On Oct. 7, the IMF holds its annual meeting in Washington, D.C.

You might be tempted to dismiss this calendar as “business as usual.” G20 leaders’ meetings happen every year. The SDR basket has been changed many times in the past. The IMF has global meetings twice a year (spring and fall). But it’s not business as usual. This time is different.

The hidden agenda involves the formal transition from a dollar standard to an SDR standard in world monetary affairs. It won’t happen overnight, but the elite decisions and seal of approval will take place at these meetings.

The SDR is a source of potentially unlimited global liquidity. That’s why SDRs were invented in 1969 (when the world was seeking alternatives to the dollar), and that’s why they will be used in the imminent future.

SDRs were issued in several tranches during the monetary turmoil between 1971 and 1981 before they were put back on the shelf. In 2009 (also in a time of financial crisis). A new issue of SDRs was distributed to IMF members to provide liquidity after the panic of 2008.

The 2009 issuance was a case of the IMF “testing the plumbing” of the system to make sure it worked properly. With no issuance of SDRs for 28 years, from 1981–2009, the IMF wanted to rehearse the governance, computational and legal processes for issuing SDRs.

The purpose was partly to alleviate liquidity concerns at the time, but also partly to make sure the system works in case a large new issuance was needed on short notice. The 2009 experience showed the system worked fine.

Since 2009, the IMF has proceeded in slow steps to create a platform for massive new issuances of SDRs and the creation of a deep liquid pool of SDR-denominated assets.

On Jan. 7, 2011, the IMF issued a master plan for replacing the dollar with SDRs. This included the creation of an SDR bond market, SDR dealers, and ancillary facilities such as repos, derivatives, settlement and clearance channels, and the entire apparatus of a liquid bond market.

In November 2015, the Executive Committee of the IMF formally voted to admit the Chinese yuan into the basket of currencies into which an SDR is convertible.

In July 2016, the IMF issued a paper calling for the creation of a private SDR bond market. These bonds are called “M-SDRs” (for market SDRs) in contrast to “O-SDRs” (for official SDRs).

In August 2016, the World Bank announced that it would issue SDR-denominated bonds to private purchasers. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the largest bank in China, will be the lead underwriter on the deal. Other private SDR bond issues are expected soon.

On Sept. 4, 2016, the G20 leaders will meet in Hangzhou, China, under the leadership of G20 President Xi Jinping, who is also the general secretary of the Communist Party of China. In this meeting, other world leaders will metaphorically kowtow to the new Chinese emperor and recognize China as the co-head of the global monetary system alongside the U.S.

On Sept. 30, 2016, at the close of business, the inclusion of the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket goes live.

On Oct. 7, 2016, the IMF will hold its annual meeting in Washington, D.C., to consider additional steps to expand the role of SDRs and make China an integral part of the new world money order.

Over the next several years, we will see the issuance of SDRs to transnational organizations, such as the U.N. and World Bank, to be spent on climate change infrastructure and other elite pet projects outside the supervision of any democratically elected bodies. (I call this the New Blueprint for Worldwide Inflation.)

Thereafter, the international monetary elite will await the next global liquidity crisis. When that crisis arrives, there will be massive issuances of SDRs to return liquidity to the world and cause global inflation. The result will be the end of the dollar as the leading global reserve currency.

Based on past practice, we can expect that the dollar will be devalued by 50–80% in the coming years.

A devaluation of this magnitude will wipe out the value of your life’s savings. You’ll still have just as many dollars, but they won’t be worth nearly as much.

The time to start preparing is now.


Friday, October 14, 2016

A Timetable for the Dollar’s Demise

The next five weeks will mark one of the most significant transformations in the international monetary system in over 30 years.

Since the dollar is still the lynchpin of this system, the dollar itself will be affected.Whatever affects the dollar affects you, your portfolio and your personal financial security. It is vital to understand the changes underway in order to protect your net worth, and even prosper in the coming transition.

Such radical transformations of the international monetary system have happened many times before, including the dual “accords” of the 1980s. These were the Plaza Accord in 1985, and the Louvre Accord in 1987 — named respectively after the Plaza Hotel in New York, and the Louvre Museum in Paris where the key meetings took place.

At the Plaza Accord, the top financial officials from the U.S., U.K., West Germany, France and Japan agreed on Sept. 22, 1985, to devalue the dollar. The dollar plunged 30% in the next two years.

The damage was so bad that a second meeting was called at the Louvre on Feb. 22, 1987. That meeting was attended by the top financial officials from the U.S., U.K., West Germany, France, Canada and Japan. Participants at that meeting agreed to halt the dollar’s devaluation. The dollar was relatively stable in the years following.

It’s a mistake to believe the dollar’s value is set by market forces.

That may be true in the short run, but in the longer run, the dollar is worth whatever governments want it to be worth. The more powerful the government, the more they can call the shots.




- Source, Daily Reckoning

Monday, October 10, 2016

Gold Demand Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Switzerland has been a net exporter of gold for the past four months. More gold is going out than is coming in. This means demand remains strong, but supplies are tight.

Switzerland does not produce its own gold. Some refiners may have inventories and there are gold vaults in Switzerland that are a potential source of supply. But the high-net worth individuals who keep their gold in Switzerland are long-term buy-and-hold investors and tend not to sell. On balance, these net outflows are unsustainable. If the outlfows persist, the price of gold is likely to go up because that’s the market’s solution to excess demand.

The “big five” destinations are China, Hong Kong, India, the U.K. and the United States. Those five destinations account for 91% of total Swiss gold exports.

Hong Kong demand is mostly for re-export to China. This is revealed through separate Hong Kong import/export figures, which are also considered reliable by international standards. Using Hong Kong as a conduit for Chinese gold is just one more way China tries to hide its true activities in the physical gold market.

Bear in mind that China is the largest gold producer in the world. There is an additional 450 tons per year of indigenous mining output available to satisfy China’s voracious demand for official gold, held by its central bank and sovereign wealth funds.

Chinese demand has been tempered by the recent strong dollar, which makes gold more expensive when purchased for yuan. That headwind may be about to dissipate if the Fed engineers a weaker dollar (which we expect) to deal with a slowing U.S. economy.

Switzerland has exported 102 tons to the U.K. and U.S., almost all to satisfy demand from ETF investors. Will this strong demand persist? ETF demand runs in a feedback loop relative to gold prices.

When gold is going up, ETF demand goes up also which puts more upward pressure on the price. This also works in reverse as we saw in 2013. When gold is going down, ETFs tend to disgorge gold, which puts further downward pressure on the gold price.

Either way, ETF demand tends to be pro-cyclical and to amplify whatever gold is doing based on other factors. If we have reason to believe that gold prices are going up on their own, ETF demand will tend to drive the price even higher and faster.

Supplies of gold in Switzerland are already tight (I heard this first-hand from my refinery and vault contacts there). If that shortage gets worse, as we expect it will, there’s only one way to adjust the Swiss gold trade imbalance — higher prices. Once the higher prices kick in, the ETF demand will send it into overdrive. From there, it’s just a matter of time before the whole paper gold pyramid comes crashing down.

Gold prices are set to skyrocket based on a combination of supply and demand fundamentals and the ETF pro-cyclical feedback loop. If gold goes up, the prices of gold mining stocks go up even faster. In effect, buying gold mining stocks is a leveraged bet on the price of gold itself.


- Source, Jim Rickards

Friday, October 7, 2016

What Do Central Bankers Know?


Author James G. Rickards joins the Power & Market Report from the 2016 Sprott Natural Resources Symposium in Vancouver.

Topics:
The outlook for natural resources
Is gold a commodity or money?
How did James come to his conclusion on gold?
Do central bankers know more than they let on?
The outlook for US stocks and more...

For more insightful market commentary and exclusive interviews visit: http://powerandmarket.com


Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Here Is Where The $10,000 Per Ounce Number Comes From

It’s not made up. I don’t throw it out there to get headlines, et cetera. It’s the implied non-deflationary price of gold. Everyone says you can’t have a gold standard, because there’s not enough gold. There’s always enough gold, you just have to get the price right.

That was the mistake made by Churchill in 1925. The world is not going to repeat that mistake. I’m not saying that we will have a gold standard. I’m saying if you have anything like a gold standard, it will be critical to get the price right. To this regard, Paul Volcker said the same thing.

The analytical question is, you can have a gold standard if you get the price right; what is the non-deflationary price? What price would gold have to be in order to support global trade and commerce, and bank balance sheets, without reducing the money supply? The answer is, $10,000 an ounce.

The math is where I use M1, based on my judgment. You can pick another measure if you choose (there are different measures of money supply). I use 40 percent backing. A lot of people don’t agree with that. The Austrians say it’s got to be 100 percent.

Historically, it’s been as low as 20 percent, so 40 percent is my number. If you take the global M1 of the major economies, times 40 percent, and divide that by the amount of official gold in the world, the answer is approximately $10,000 an ounce.

Now, if you go to 100 percent, you’re going to get, using M1, you’re going to get $25,000 an ounce. If you use M2 at 100 percent, you’re going to get $50,000 an ounce. If you use 20 percent backing with M1, you’re going to get $5,000 an ounce. All those numbers are going to be different based on the inputs, but just to state my inputs, I’m using global major economy M1, 40 percent backing, and official gold supply of about 35,000 tons.

Change the input, you’ll change the output, but there’s no mystery. It’s not a made-up number. The math is eighth grade math, it’s not calculus.

- Source, Daily Reckoning

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Double Digit Inflation And The Rise of Gold

Double-digit inflation is a non-linear development. What I mean by that is, inflation doesn’t go simply from two percent, three percent, four, five, six. What happens is it’s really hard to get it from two to three, which is ultimately what the fed wants.

It’s proving extremely difficult just to get up to two. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the core price deflator, which is what the fed looks at. Currently, it is at about 1.6, 1.7 percent, but it’s stuck there. It’s not going anywhere. The fed continues to try everything possible to get it to two with hopes to hit three. Where the problem arises is once you get to three, the next stop isn’t four, it’s eight, and then it goes to ten. In other words, there is a big jump.

The reason is that it’s not purely a function of monetary policy, it’s a partial function of monetary policy.

It’s also a partial function of behavioral psychology. It’s very difficult to get people to change their expectations, but if you do, it’s hard to get them to change back again.

Inflation can really spin out of control very quickly. So is double-digit inflation rate within the next five years in the future? It’s possible. Though I am not forecasting it. If it happens, it would happen very quickly. We would see a struggle from two to three, and then jump to six, and then jump to nine or ten. This is another reason why having a gold allocation now is of value. Because if and when these types of development begin happening, gold will be inaccessible.

To this point, I am often approached on, “How can you say gold prices will rise to $10,000 without knowing developments in the world economy, or even what actions will be taken by the federal reserve?”

- Source, Daily Reckoning

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Jim Rickards - The Coming Super Spike in Gold

I consider gold a form of money. That means I investigate price movements in gold the same way I investigate moves in any other global currency — and find the best way for you to play it.

Right now, if you understand physical gold flows, you could stand to make a fortune in the months and years ahead.

Last June, I visited Zurich and was able to meet with some of the most knowledgeable experts and insiders in the physical gold industry. In March, I visited Lugano where I met with the top executive of the world’s largest gold refinery. As a result of these visits to Switzerland, and other points of contact, I have been able to gather extensive information on the major buyers and sellers of gold bullion in the world and the exact flows of physical gold.

This information about gold flows is critical to understanding what will happen next to the price of gold. The reason is that the price of gold is largely determined in “paper gold” markets, such as Comex gold futures and gold ETFs. These paper gold contracts represent 100 times (or more) the amount of physical gold available to settle those contracts.

As long as paper gold contracts are rolled over or settled for paper money, then the system works fine. But, as soon as paper gold contract holders demand physical gold in settlement, they will be shocked to discover there’s not nearly enough physical gold to go around.

At that point, there will be panicked buying of gold. The price of gold will skyrocket by thousands of dollars per ounce. Gold mining stocks will increase in value by ten times or more. Paper gold sellers will move to shut down the futures exchange and terminate paper gold contacts because they cannot possibly honor their promises to deliver gold.



The key to seeing this gold-buying panic in advance is to follow the flows of physical gold. Once the price of physical gold starts to move up on basic supply and demand fundamentals, the stage is set for corresponding increases in paper gold prices. As more and more paper gold holders turn from the paper market to obtain physical gold, which is already in short supply in the physical market, we’ll see the beginning of a price super-spike.

As long as supply and demand for physical gold are in rough equilibrium, there is no catalyst for a sudden spike in gold prices, apart from the usual geopolitical flight to quality demand. But, as soon as demand begins to overwhelm supply, then it’s “game on” for significantly higher physical gold prices followed by the toppling of the inverted pyramid of paper gold contracts.

What information do we have about the flows of physical gold that will help us to understand the supply/demand situation? That’s a mixed bag. Some physical gold players are completely opaque and do not report their purchases or holdings transparently. The Chinese and Saudi Arabians are the least transparent when it comes to reporting their gold market activities.

On the other hand, the Swiss are highly transparent. The Swiss report gold imports and exports by source and destination on a monthly basis.

The Swiss information gives us a window on the world. That’s because Swiss imports and exports are mostly about the Swiss refining business, which is the largest in the world. There are no major gold mines in Switzerland and Swiss citizens are not known as major buyers of gold (unlike, say, Chinese or Indian citizens). The Swiss watch industry does use a lot of gold, but imports are balanced out by exports; Switzerland itself is not a major destination for Swiss watches.

In effect, Switzerland is a conduit for much of the gold in the world. Gold arrives in Switzerland as 400-ounce good delivery bars (the kind I’m holding in the photo above), dorĂ© bars (those are 80% pure ingots from gold miners), and “scrap” (that’s the term for jewelry and other recycled gold objects).

This gold is then melted down and refined mostly into 99.99% pure 1-kilo gold bars, worth about $45,000 each at current market prices. These 1-kilo “four nines” quality bars are the new global standard and are the ones most favored by the Chinese.

By examining Swiss imports and exports, we can see where the supply and demand for physical gold is coming from and how close to balance (or imbalance) that supply and demand is. This information can help us to forecast the coming super-spike in gold prices.



Thursday, September 22, 2016

Jim Rickards and Egon von Greyerz discuss $10,000 gold


In this 18 minutes video, recorded in a Swiss vault, Jim and Egon cover many vital factors that investors must be aware of to protect themselves against the major risks in the financial system..
Among the topics covered are:

- Why gold will reach at least $10,000
- The timing of gold’s rapid rise
- The significance of gold exports from the UK to Switzerland
- Swiss banks in breach of contract
- Central banks and gold
- The importance of silver
- How to buy gold and silver
- Hyperinflation and velocity of money
- China and gold
- The End Game


Monday, September 19, 2016

Reveals IMF World Currency Crash Conspiracy, We Need Gold Standard


Jim Rickards breaks down why he recommends at least 10% of your wealth be placed in gold. He sees an international break down coming in the future and says your kidding yourself if you don't think it could happen here!


Saturday, September 3, 2016

The Keiser Report: Gold & World’s Debt Problems


In this special episode of the 2016 Summer Solutions series of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy talk to Jim Rickards, author of The New Case for Gold, about gold as a solution to the world’s debt problems. They also discuss the solution that the leading global powers will present: rolling up the world’s bad debt into the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), which is why China has been buying SDRs on the market.



Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Jim Rickards & Peter Schiff Discuss US Dollar, Gold Markets, Bitcoin


The financial guru Jim Rickards sits down with another titan in the industry, Peter Schiff. The two discuss gold, bitcoin and the irrational decisions that Western leaders are making. How is all this going to play out in the coming collapse that both analyst see coming?



Saturday, August 27, 2016

The Dynamics are in Place for $10000 Gold

"What impresses me is that gold going up immediately after the Brexit vote, or gold going up a little bit after the Turkey coup, that you can understand. Those are kind of flight to quality, fear-trade reactions. But gold didn’t go down a lot when those things were overIt’s got a very good foundation – kind of around the $1,330 level, so it seems poised to go up a lot from here.

I’ve got gold going to $10,000 now. So, I’m the guy with the highest price target out thereIt could be a matter of weeks or a matter of years. This is one of these avalanche type event things. You don’t know when the snowflakes are going to hit. It’s going to be a change in psychology, a panic reaction, and it will happen very quicklyit could be a five-year play or it could be a one-year play depending on circumstances. I don’t really want to get into the timing of it except that the dynamic is set up for $10,000 gold. As far as a $1,450 price target, yeah it’s got to pass $1,450 on the way to $10,000.”




Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Jim Rickards Weighs in on Brexit and The Possibility of Economic Collapse


Jim Rickards breaks down Brexit and how it is going to affect the global economies. He talks about how the elites have become completely out of touch with the world. What is going to happen next? Watch the video to learn more.



Saturday, August 20, 2016

Jim Rickards Talks About Economic Collapse


Jim Rickards discusses how gold is both money and a commodity. It has unique properties that are going to make it a key holding in the coming uncertainty that the global economy is going to face. Gold has three characteristics that make it a must have asset. Listen to learn more.




Wednesday, August 17, 2016

We Are in a Historical Intense Economic Period


Jim Rickards discusses the ongoing events unfolding in the global battle known as the currency wars. China is slowing down and it is going to bring everyone down with it. We are an incredibly intense economic period that could set the world spinning. Listen for Jim Rickards latest take on where he see's the world heading.




Friday, August 12, 2016

SDR's to Be Ushered In By Elites During the Next Economic Collapse


In this special episode of the 2016 Summer Solutions series of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy talk to Jim Rickards, author of The New Case for Gold, about gold as a solution to the world’s debt problems. They also discuss the solution that the leading global powers will present: rolling up the world’s bad debt into the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), which is why China has been buying SDRs on the market.


Thursday, August 11, 2016

Gold Shows Impressive Resilience


Jim Rickards, "The New Case for Gold" author makes a bullish case for gold and is keeping an eye on key levels for silver.


Thursday, July 14, 2016

The Gold Chronicles with Jim Rickards


Interview Talking Points:

*The West is waking up to Gold

*Gold inflows have exceeded $13 Billion so far in 2016

*Paul Singer, Stanley Druckenmiller, Jeffrey Gundlach, George Soros all recommending gold

*Gold is the best performing asset for both 2016, as well as the last 16 years since 2000

*There has been a change in the conversation and narrative about gold in the West

*Investors are losing confidence in Central Banks which is fueling the awareness about gold

*As we have discussed previously on The Gold Chronicles, the technical set up for gold to rise has been in place for some time, and was only awaiting a shift in Western sentiment

*PIMCO economist suggesting an official re-pricing of gold to defeat current deflation and reach Fed inflation targets

*Discussion of how open market operations by the Fed to raise the official price of gold would work

*Kenneth Rogoff is recommending developing economy countries to increase their gold reserves to 10% to diversify reserves composition

*Chief Economist BIS indicates the world monetary system is lacking an anchor - why we think this anchor could be gold


Monday, July 11, 2016

Jim Rickards Reveals Alarming Evidence of Gold Supply Tightness Chinese Hoarding


Jim Rickards, author of the book The New Case for Gold reports on some alarming evidence of a gold supply shortage developing across the world and the increasingly dangerous folly of central bankers.

- Source

Saturday, July 2, 2016

Jim Rickards - 2018 SDR World Currency Backed with Gold




Leading the way, says Rickards, will be the International Monetary Fund. “The task of re-liquefying the world will fall to the IMF because the IMF will have the only clean balance sheet left among official institutions. The IMF will rise to the occasion with a towering issuance of SDRs, and this monetary operation will effectively end the dollar’s role as the leading reserve currency.”
Ah… the SDR. That’s shorthand for “special drawing rights.”

The name is cryptic. The mechanism will prove far more inscrutable than the Fed’s alphabet-soup bailout programs in 2008. But the objective will be the same… to print money in the interest of keeping a rotten system functioning.

Boiled down to its essence, the SDR is a kind of super money printed by the IMF and then circulated among central banks and governments. Indeed, the IMF has issued SDRs three times since their creation more than 40 years ago. Each time was linked to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar

Friday, June 17, 2016

Here's how gold could reach $10000


Will gold keep its luster? The Futures Now traders discuss where gold prices are heading with Jim Rickards, author of "The New Case For Gold"

- Source, CNBC

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Jim Rickards: The Fiat System is Collapsing, Gold to Shine


Monetary expert Jim Rickards returns this week to share the insights from his latest work The New Case For Gold, a detailed and highly-researched study of the fundamentals likely to drive the price of gold bullion in the years to come.

Rickards is quite confident that the price is going higher -- much higher in fact -- as the current world fiat currency regimes falter, to be replaced by ones backed (at least in part) by bullion.

On the way to that outcome, expect the price to be subjugated to the interests and aims of the largest players on the geopolitical chessboard.




Saturday, May 14, 2016

EXCLUSIVE: JIM RICKARDS DESTROYS ESTABLISHMENT MYTHS AND MAKE THE NEW CASE FOR GOLD


Jim Rickards, Financial Threat and Asymmetric Warfare Advisor and best selling author joins Gary Franchi to destroy common misconceptions about gold and our money supply and make the compelling NEW case for gold.



Thursday, May 5, 2016

How Badly Does China Want Gold?


Best-selling author Jim Rickards’ latest book, the New Case For Gold, he brings up one of the most common criticisms of a new gold standard – that there is not enough gold to support it. Rickards makes the argument that it would work at a certain price level. In his interview with Kitco News, Rickards also discusses China and gold buying. He suggests that China is suppressing the gold price through the COMEX market in order to build-up more physical supplies. Once they have a sufficient supply, equal to the United States, they will no longer care what the metal's price is and it will likely skyrocket, he explains.




Monday, May 2, 2016

The Fed's solvency is propped up by gold


We're pleased to have Jim Rickards on this time, author of best sellers Currency Wars and The Death of Money, and now back with a new book called "The New Case for Gold". We'll talk about his book, gold, his views on bitcoin, negative interest rates, QE (for the people) and much more.



Friday, April 29, 2016

James Rickards - Gold $10,000 to $50,000 per Ounce


Financial Expert James Rickards says, “The Fed wants inflation . . . . They are not getting it, but they have to have it. What does that mean for policy? That means they are not going to give up . . . . They are going to keep trying until they get inflation, and when that happens, you are going to wish you had your gold.”

How much will gold be in the future? Rickards calculates, “$10,000 per ounce with 40% backing . . . if you had 100% backing (of the dollar), that number would be $50,000 per ounce. The implied non-deflationary price of gold, depending on your assumptions, is between $10,000 and $50,000 per ounce. If you are going to have a gold standard and you want to avoid the blunder of the 1920’s, you are going to have gold at least at $10,000 per ounce and possibly much higher. I explain all this in my book.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with James Rickards, the best-selling author of the brand new book called “The New Case for Gold.”




Tuesday, April 26, 2016

World Monetary Collapse Coming, We Need A Return to the Gold Standard


Jim Rickards states that the world is in more dangerous position than ever. The crisis of epic proportions is on its way and the only solution is a return to the gold standard, whether the financial elite wants this or not, doesn't matter. The return of honest money is on its way.

TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:

02:00 Why The New Case for Gold, Jim's New Book & Gold Standard
05:00 10% of Your Assets Should be in Gold for Safety
07:30 Will Gold Rally in 2016?
08:40 Dollar to get A Lot Weaker, Make Gold Look Stronger
09:40 Is Gold Money? Would Gold Standard Cause Deflation?
12:00 Gold Standard vs Supply
15:10 Inflation vs Deflation
17:00 Federal Reserve Now Delaying Rate Hikes to Cause Inflation
18:10 Expect Collapse in World Money System in next Few Years



Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Rickards - Why Gold Is Going To $10,000


Bestselling author Jim Rickards sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss his new book “The New Case for Gold” and why a cocktail of factors makes it more critical than ever for investors to protect their portfolios with gold.


Saturday, April 9, 2016

Jim Rickards: The US Dollar Is a Shadow Gold Currency - The New Case for Gold


Get ready to dispose of your preconceived notions regarding the Federal Reserve and its take on gold! Is it possible that the Fed wants a higher gold price after all? That is what Jim Rickards reveals in this riveting interview with Palisade Radio.


Monday, April 4, 2016

The Age of Instability

Unprecedented policies always bring unintended consequences. Weidentify these hidden fractures. There are many at the moment, and we’ll be writing to you about those in the months ahead.

The ongoing currency war is not new. In fact, the war has been raging since 2010. That’s when President Obama announced the National Export Initiative (NEI) in his Jan. 27, 2010, State of the Union.

The president declared that it was the goal of the United States to double exports in five years. Of course, the U.S. could not become twice as productive or twice as populous in five years. The only way to double exports was to trash the currency, and that’s exactly what happened.

Although it was not widely noticed at the time, the NEI was the start of a new currency war. This was the most momentous development in international economics since Nixon abandoned the gold standard on Aug. 15, 1971. The repercussions are still being felt, and the potential impact on your portfolio has never been greater.

To understand the importance of this raging currency war, some history is needed.

From the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 until Nixon abandoned gold in 1971, the international monetary system operated on a gold standard. All major currencies in the world were pegged to the dollar at fixed exchange rates, and the dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce.

Because of these pegs, non-dollar currencies were indirectly pegged to gold, and to each other. The International Monetary Fund could allow the currency pegs to be adjusted, but it was a laborious and protracted process. (But some countries had already broken their pegs prior to 1971.)

Still, on the whole, it was a fixed-rate system with the dollar and gold as its anchors. This system cracked up in 1971. It was not immediately replaced with a new system. From 1971–79, the world muddled through first with a new gold peg (at $42.22 per ounce), then with floating exchange rates and then with the first efforts at a European monetary system (called “the snake”).

None of this was stable.

The world experienced multiple recessions and borderline hyperinflation, which reached a crescendo in January 1980. At that point, annual dollar inflation reached 15%, interest rates hit 20% and gold spiked to $800 per ounce — a 2,200% increase from the old $35 level.

The international monetary system was collapsing. The world was spinning out of control.

Then, on the brink of total collapse, two individuals stepped in to save the system. One was Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve. The other was President Ronald Reagan. Volcker took interest rates as high as needed to kill inflation. Reagan cut taxes and regulation to encourage growth in the U.S. economy.

It worked.

Inflation came down, growth went up and soon the U.S. became a magnet for savings and investment from around the world. The Age of King Dollar had begun.

From 1980–2010, the world was not on a gold standard, but it was on a de facto dollar standard. Under the leadership of Treasury secretaries James Baker (Republican) and Robert Rubin (Democrat), the U.S. told the world that the dollar was a stable store of value. Trading partners could not anchor to gold, but they could anchor to the dollar.

This new “dollar standard” prevailed through the Plaza Accord (1985), the Louvre Accord (1987), the Mexican Peso Crisis (1994) and the Asian-Russian Crisis (1998). U.S. leadership under Presidents Reagan, Bush 41 and Clinton were resolute. The strong dollar was the new gold standard, and it was here to stay.

Yet nothing lasts forever, especially in international economics. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 put an end to the Age of King Dollar and gave rise to a new currency war.

Wars have an official start date (when someone fires the first shot), but they are usually years in the making. The new currency war is no different.

The war process started with the G-20 leaders’ summit in Pittsburg in September 2009. It was at that meeting that Mike Froman (a key economic adviser to President Obama and now U.S. trade representative) devised a global “rebalancing” plan.

Froman got Obama to convince world leaders of the need for rebalancing inside the major economic zones. He did this to jump-start the global recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression.

- Source, Jim Rickards via the Daily Reckoning

Friday, April 1, 2016

Rickards: The Fed’s Mirage

A Fata Morgana is a kind of mirage in which distant objects at sea appear to be floating in midair or upside down, sometimes both. One famous literary description of a Fata Morgana occurs in Chapter 135 of Herman Melville’s masterpiece, Moby Dick.

As Ahab is pulled overboard, and the White Whale rams the Pequod, Melville writes:

“The ship? Great God, where is the ship? Soon they through the dim, bewildering mediums saw her sidelong fading phantom, as in the gaseous Fata Morgana.”

But, of course the ship was sinking, the vision was an illusion.

The Federal Reserve now sees its own mirage. In a real Fata Morgana, the illusion is caused by thermal inversion and light refraction. In the Fed’s mirage the illusion is caused by academic dogma with names like “Phillips Curve,” “NAIRU,” and “FRB/US.” Still, an illusion is an illusion regardless of cause.

Illusions can persist as long as the conditions that give rise to the illusion dominate. In the case of a Fata Morgana, those conditions involve heat and light. In the case of the Fed, the illusions involve bad models. A change in the weather will shatter a Fata Morgana. A change in the economy will shatter Phillips, NAIRU and Ferbus.

Let’s consider the Fed’s failed dogma.

The Phillips Curve is the discredited belief that there is some tradeoff between employment and inflation. Supposedly tight labor markets give rise to demands for higher wages by workers, which lead to higher prices by companies to pay the wages, which lead to higher wage demands, etc. in an inflationary spiral sometimes referred to as “demand-pull inflation.”

This is neo-Keynesian nonsense. It applies in some special cases (1965-1969), but does not apply in the general case. The Phillips Curve was discredited in the late 1970s (high inflation and recession coexisted, called “stagflation”), and yet Fed Chair Janet Yellen clings to it like Linus with his blanket. What the Phillips Curve and Linus’s blanket have in common is they are both in shreds.

Today inflation is nowhere in sight and deflation is the greater risk. Only Yellen and a few like-minded Fed officials see inflation as a risk because they’re looking at models, not the real world.

NAIRU is the acronym for the infelicitously named “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment,” or the point at which tight labor markets lead to higher inflation. In the past four years, Fed estimates have moved the NAIRU goalposts from 6.5% to 5.5% to 5%, and now to 4.9% and so on. That’s as strong proof that NAIRU doesn’t actually exist. NAIRU is like a unicorn – you can describe it in detail, but it never appears in the natural world.

For the record, Fed one-year forward forecasts have been incorrect by orders of magnitude for seven consecutive years. That’s because FRB/US is an equilibrium model, and the economy is not an equilibrium system – it’s a complex dynamic system requiring completely different tools to model. If you use the wrong model, you’ll get the wrong forecast every time.

Why does this matter? It matters because the Fed is still on course to raise interest rates later this year. Markets, in their typically moody style, have gone from expecting four rate increases to none in a matter of weeks. Both market estimates are overwrought.

In fact, the Fed is tightening into weakness and will persist in doing so. As a result, investors should expect near recessionary conditions, and continued declines in stock prices for the next 6 to 8 months.

Expect the Fed to raise twice more, in March and June, (because of their model-based mirage), and then ease (because recessionary reality will hit them like a 2×4 to the forehead by late summer).

At that point, Fed ease will take the form of forward guidance; basically an announcement that the Fed is done raising rates for an extended period. Stocks may rally late in the year based on this easing. Forward guidance will be used to ease since the Fed cannot actually cut rates after July due to the election cycle. December 2016 is the earliest possible date for a rate cut.

Talk of more quantitative easing (“QE4”) is premature at best, and probably incorrect. Evidence is emerging that QE doesn’t work as intended. Besides, the Fed has other easing tools they will use first including rate cuts, forward guidance, and a cheaper dollar. QE4 is a mid-2017 event at the earliest, (and the Fed may even experiment with negative interest rates before more QE).

Reality is sinking in for the markets, but the Fed will be the last to know because they are fixated on the mirage. That illusion will be gone by late July when Q1 and Q2 2016 GDP data are in hand. Then the easing cycle will begin.


- Source, Darien Times