Monday, August 19, 2019

Jim Rickards: What the World Will Look Like after the Next Financial Crisis



There are dark clouds forming over the global economy and the bull run in markets could be getting long in the tooth.

Jim Rickards lays out what he sees coming and how the world will look after the next financial crisis unfolds.

For perspective on this and what the financial world could look like after the next crisis, BNN Bloomberg speaks with Jim Rickards, author of "Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos."

- Source, BNN 


Thursday, August 8, 2019

Real Conversations: How To Protect Your Wealth When This Bubble Bursts


Outspoken author and investment advisor James Rickards sat down for a pro-to-pro discussion with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough recently. 

Here's an interesting quote from Jim: 

“I was able to ask Larry Summers about that at dinner a couple of days ago. I knew the answer, but I wanted to hear what his answer was. 

So the question was, ‘In the last 10 years, Russia has more than tripled its gold reserves and China has more than tripled its gold reserves.’ 

They have a lot more off the books, but let's take the official number. Why are they doing it? And he sort of thought about it for a second and he said, ‘Well, diversification.’ 

That's actually technically a good answer. But then he said, ‘Maybe they think the price will go up.’ 

So I’ve got Larry Summers on the record saying, higher gold prices. I'm on board with that.” 

That’s just one of many fascinating tidbits from this new, in-depth conversation.

- Source, Hedgeye

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Robert Kiyosaki & Jim Rickards: How to Survive the Aftermath


The increasing intersection of geopolitics and economics presents new challenges to investors. Jim Rickards joins Robert & Kim to discuss his latest work into predictive analytics. Find out the real risks to your wealth and separate the hype from what’s important.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Preparing to Protect Your Wealth In An Economic Downturn


Stocks are near all-time highs, but investors should be prepared to protect their wealth in times of economic downturns, knowing a bull market can't last forever. We spoke to Jim Rickards, Author of 'Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos'.

- Source, Cheddar.com

Saturday, July 27, 2019

James Rickards: Trump Wins Reelection if the Economy Avoids Recession


Best-selling financial author James Rickards is not seeing a recession anytime soon. In fact, he is not forecasting a recession until after the 2020 Presidential Election. 

What does that mean for the chances of a second Trump Presidency? Rickards says, “If you put recession odds at 35%, and that is probably high, then the inverse of 65% is his probability of winning.

Every month that goes by, the odds of a recession by next summer go down. So, the odds of Trump winning go up. I don’t want to debate the economics of the Fed and what they are doing, but the Fed is doing what it needs to do to avoid a recession, and that improves Trump’s odds. 

Right now, I have Trump as the winner.” After the 2020 Presidential Election, Rickards is much less optimistic and so are the wealthy elite. Rickards says, “The rich are building bunkers. Entrepreneurs are actually buying abandoned missile siloes with armed guards and steel doors.

Here’s another interesting thing, hedge fund billionaires may trade stocks, bonds and currencies all day long, but when you ask them where do you have your own money, every one of them that I have spoken to have gold, physical gold.

They all have gold. They don’t trade it, but they have it.” Rickards covers a lot of ground in this in-depth interview that is more than one hour in length. 

Rickards talks about the new gold (and silver) bull market, what everybody, especially the small investors, needs to buy now, and talks about a gold price that is exponentially higher than today’s price. 

Rickards discusses the world’s massive debt, probability of big defaults and huge inflation all coming in the “Aftermath” of the coming crisis...

- Source, USA Watchdog

Monday, July 22, 2019

Jim Rickards: This is Exactly How You Survive the Coming Financial Crisis and Prosper


James Rickards, editor of the newsletter Strategic Intelligence and an advisor on economics and financial threats to the U.S. Defense and intelligence, discusses his book, “Aftermath”.

- Source, Jay Taylor Media

Friday, July 19, 2019

Jim Rickards: Wealth Preservation Survival Guide for the Coming Chaos


We all know the financial crisis is coming. What can you do about it? What can you do to not only survive, but prosper?

Author, financial expert, and investment advisor Jim Rickards joins today's Liberty Report to discuss his upcoming book, "Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos."

- Source, Ron Paul

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Economist Jim Rickards On Gold Versus Bitcoin


Jim Rickards is the editor of Strategic Intelligence and the author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis. 

He believes gold can go to $10,000 an ounce but he is much more skeptical about bitcoin. 

Rickards doesn't trust the bitcoin price action and doesn't believe the cryptocurrency will fare well in a financial crisis.

- Source, Money Insider

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Jim Rickards Claims Victory in Gold VS Bitcoin Debate


James G. Rickards joins Remy Blaire in the aftermath of the 'Gold vs. Bitcoin' debate with James Altucher at the Stand Up NY comedy club. Rickards weighs in on the outlook for commodities and cryptocurrencies in "the year of living dangerously.

- Source, Sprott Media

Monday, July 1, 2019

Wall Street and the New Cold War

The stock market seems to rise or fall almost daily based on the latest news from the front lines of the trade wars.

When Trump threatens new tariffs and China threatens to retaliate in kind, stocks fall. When Trump delays the tariffs and China agrees to resume negotiations, stocks rise. And so it goes. It has been this way since January 2018 when the trade war began.

The latest dust-up came late last week when Trump threatened tariffs against Mexico if it doesn’t do more to curb illegal immigration to the U.S. Markets sold off on Friday as a result, bringing a terrible May to an end. Largely due to the trade war, the stock market had its worst May in seven years.

From the start, Wall Street underestimated the impact of the trade war. First they said Trump was bluffing. Then the analysts said that Trump and Xi would put their differences aside and make an historic deal.

All of these analyses were wrong. The trade war was problematic from the start and is growing worse today.

China will lose the trade war. The reasons are obvious. Foreign trade is a much larger percentage of Chinese GDP than it is for the U.S., so a trade war was always bound to have more impact on China than the U.S.

And if China tries to match the U.S. in tariffs dollar for dollar, they run out of headroom at $150 billion while the U.S. can keep going up to $500 billion and inflict far more pain on China.

Other forms of Chinese retaliation are mostly nonstarters. They cannot dump U.S. Treasuries without hurting their own reserve position and risking an account freeze by the U.S. China cannot turn up the pressure by stealing intellectual property because they’re already doing that to the greatest extent possible.

China’s latest threat is to ban exports of “rare earths” to the U.S. and its allies. Rare earths are essential for the production of plasma screens, fiber optics, lasers and other high-tech applications. Electric vehicles, mobile phones and telecommunications systems would be impossible to build without them. China is responsible for 90% of global production, which makes them a potent weapon in the U.S.-China trade wars.

“Rare” earths aren’t actually that rare. They are plentiful in quantity. The problem is that they are found in extremely low concentrations. This means a huge amount of ore and expensive mining processes are needed to extract even a small amount of these vital substances.

So rare earths are one weapon China possesses.

But over time, Western powers can replace rare earths purchased from China. There could be major manufacturing disruption in the meantime, it’s true. But it would not be the end of the world.

The U.S. will win the trade war and either China will open its markets and buy more U.S. goods or the Chinese economy will slow significantly.

But while the trade war is important, it’s not the main event.

The trade war is part of a much larger struggle between China and the U.S. for hegemony in Asia and the Western Pacific.

They are locked in a new cold war being fought on many fronts. These include trade; technology; rights of passage in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea; and alliances in South Asia, where China’s Belt and Road Initiative is promising billions of dollars for infrastructure development.

The U.S. is responding with arms deals and bilateral trade deals to counter Chinese influence. Even if a modest trade deal is worked out with China this summer, it will not put an end to the larger struggle now underway.

What are the implications?

If the Chinese view the trade war as just one step in a protracted cold war, which I believe they do, then we’re in for a long period of contracting growth that will not be confined to China but will affect the entire world.

That seems the most likely outcome for now. Get set for slower growth and perhaps stagflation. It could be like the late 1970s all over again.

Slowly, Wall Street is taking the trade wars seriously. But it is still missing its larger implications of a new cold war.

This new cold war could last for decades and it will affect the entire global economy. Let’s just hope it doesn’t turn into a shooting war.

- Source, James Rickards via the Daily Reckoning

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

James Rickards: If Gold Was Just a Barbarous Relic...

There’s nothing new about the Russian accumulation of gold bullion in their reserve position. It began in a material way in 2009 when Russia had about 600 metric tonnes of gold.

Today, Russia has 2,183 metric tonnes, a stunning 264% increase in less than 10 years. Russia is the sixth-largest gold power in the world after the U.S., Germany, IMF, Italy and France.

Russia’s gold hoard is over 25% of the U.S. hoard, but Russia’s economy is only 8% the size of the U.S. economy. This gives Russia a gold-to-GDP ratio over three times that of the U.S.

While these developments are well-known, the question of why Russia is accumulating so much gold has never been answered.

One reason is as a dollar hedge. Russia is the second-largest energy producer in the world. Most of that energy is sold for dollars. Russia can hedge potential dollar inflation by buying gold.

Another reason has to do with the avoidance of U.S. sanctions. Gold is nondigital and does not move through electronic payments systems, so it is impossible for the U.S. to freeze on interdict.

Yet a deeper reason is that Russia has a long-term plan to subvert the dollar’s role as the leading global reserve currency. The Russian ruble is not positioned to be a reserve currency, but a new cryptocurrency backed by gold would be a good candidate.

The Central Bank of Russia will consider a new study that suggests just such a gold-backed cryptocurrency to settle balance of payments among willing participants. This plan is in its preliminary stages and is a long way from reality at this point.

Still, the Russian endgame has now been revealed. The dollar’s days as the leading reserve currency are numbered.

Of course, Russia is not the only nation accumulating gold as a means to move away from the dollar. You can certainly add China to that list, and many others.

The latest move comes from Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. He promoted the idea of a common trading currency for East Asia that would be pegged to gold. “The currency that we propose should be based on gold because gold is much more stable,” he said.

I’ve actually advised Mahathir Mohamad in the past and he’s very familiar with my writings on gold. So I’m not surprised he’s issuing this call.

The global monetary regime has collapsed three times over the past 100 years, in 1914, 1939, and 1971. They seem to happen about every 30 to 40 years on average. It’s now been over 40 years since the last collapse, so we’re due.

Got gold?
- Source, James Rickards

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Jim Rickards: The Perfect Storm is Coming

People often refer to the “perfect storm.” A perfect storm is generally understood as two or more events that are independent but converge to produce an outcome much worse than either event alone.

The term is an overused cliché, and as a writer I avoid clichés whenever possible. But though rare, perfect storms do exist. The most common example is the devastating 1991 storm popularized by the book and movie of the same name, although it was initially known as the “Halloween storm.”

In that case, three separate weather dynamics all converged in one place on one day to produce a perfect storm. The odds of all three coming together at once were less than one in 100,000. That’s less than once in 270 years. That’s a perfect storm.

Do metaphorical perfect storms happen in politics and capital markets?

The answer is yes, provided the conditions of the perfect storm definition are satisfied. The multiple events that make up the true perfect storm must be independent and rare and come to converge in an almost impossible way.

Unfortunately, a political and market perfect storm is now on the way and may strike as early as Halloween 2019, marking a new “Halloween storm.” Get ready.

Today I’ll be discussing the components making up this perfect storm, and how I see them all coming together at the same time.

In my 40-plus years in banking and capital markets, I have lived through a number of financial fiascos that arguably qualify as perfect storms. 
Here’s a partial list:

1970: Penn Central bankruptcy, the largest in history at that time
1973–74: Arab oil embargo
1977–80: U.S. hyperinflation
1982–85: Latin American debt crisis
1987: One-day 22% stock market crash
1988–92: Savings and loan (S&L) crisis
1994: Mexican tequila crisis
1997: Asian financial crisis
1998: Russia/Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis
2000:Dot-com crash
2007: Mortgage market collapse
2008: Lehman Bros./AIG financial panic.

I was not just a bystander at these events. From 1977–85, I worked at Citibank and dealt with inflation, currencies and Latin America from a front-row seat.

From 1985–93 I worked for a major government bond dealer that financed S&Ls and traded their mortgages.

From 1994–99, I was at LTCM and dealt in all the major international markets. I negotiated the LTCM rescue by Wall Street in September 1998.

In 1999–2000 I ran a tech startup, and in 2007–08 I was an investment banker and financial threat adviser to the CIA.

That’s a lot of action for one career, but it also makes the point that financial perfect storms happen more frequently than standard models expect.

Here’s what I learned: Every one of these episodes was preceded by mass complacency or euphoria.

Before the Arab oil embargo, we expected cheap oil forever. Before the Latin American debt crisis, countries like Brazil and Argentina were “the land of the future.”