Monday, October 21, 2019

Jim Rickards: Communist China Thought They Could Mimic Capitalism

The key word there is "mimic." The Communist Party [of China] thought they could finesse and control it, but it is turning out markets have a mind of their own. But the "Empire" will strike back, they have an enormous arsenal of tools they can use to try to fight this bubble.

In the end, all bubbles burst, I expect this will go down about 70% or 80% before it runs its course, but bubbles never go down in a straight line...

This could take multiple years and there could be rallies in the meantime. They need to cut interest rates, cut reserve requirements and cheapen the Yuan, sell their reserves and use that to prop up their markets. There is a lot they can do, but this is just going to grind lower...

I expect China will do something, they are probably debating it right now... They do have room, unlike the U.S., because we should have raised rates when we could have back in 2010, China still has room to cut rates, and they've got $3.5 trillion in reserves, that is a lot of dry powder.

However, this has implications, it has what the IMF calls "spillover effects."

If they have to sell their reserves to raise funds to bail out their market, what are they selling? [U.S.] Treasuries. That puts upward pressure on U.S. interest rates, now the trend in interest rates is probably down because of deflation, but in the short run, this is going to make the dollar even stronger and make deflation worse.

By the way, everything that is going on in China sort of started with the Fed. They went though a "kamikaze mission," as I call it, talking about raising rates all year. The eocnomy was visibly slowing, deflation had the upper hand, why on Earth is Janet Yellen talking about raising rates?

But as long as China was pegged, our deflation became their deflation. It was killing them so they broke the peg, but then the markets are crashing, so all these things are connected. It is not that China causes our problems, the problems actually started here, went to China, and now they are coming back...

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Jim Rickards: Should you be Preparing for a Market Collapse?

America's economy is doing pretty well these days. Considering what might happen in the event that it collapses is likely among the last things most wish to do. 

Wall Street veteran Jim Rickards believes that the time is now to prepare for what happens when the good years draw to a close. 

His latest book, the bestseller 'Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos,' details what he believes will transpire as a result of the next global economic meltdown, as well as what ordinary folks can do to shield themselves from fiscal ruination.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Why The Next Financial Crisis Will Be the Biggest Yet

Jim Rickards explains why there's a financial crisis coming, and in so doing, reviews the unusual origins of his predictive analytics tool. 

He also explores complexity theory and Bayesian statistics. Jim Rickards is a renowned author and the chief global strategist at Meraglim.

Could this be the biggest financial crisis since 2008? The biggest ever?

Friday, September 27, 2019

Ask the Expert: Jim Rickards on a Future Global Reserve Currency & Interest Rates

James Rickards is Chief Global Strategist at the West Shore Funds, Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a monthly newsletter, and Director of The James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and global capital.

In the first of a value-packed, two-part Ask The Expert segment, Jim answers your reader-submitted questions, including:

• Canada officially holds zero gold. Where does that leave them now?

• Is the concept of a global reserve currency becoming obsolete?

• Will the trend toward lower (or negative) interest rates ever reverse?

- Source, Sprott Money

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Jim Rickards & Grant Williams: Predicting the Currency War and the Case For Gold

Jim Rickards, renowned author and economist, explains his theory on the currency war and why he believes it is important to buy gold now more than ever.

- Source, Real Vision

Friday, September 13, 2019

James Rickards: Forecasting Long Term Cycles

Rickards, who also edits the Strategic Intelligence newsletter, thinks in multi-year and often multi-decade cycles. This, however, poses certain challenges.

One of these is dealing with friends, clients, and readers who want to know what day the economic reset—which smart money managers think is coming—will happen.

(Rickards says he has never met a major hedge fund manager who did not personally own gold.)

The lawyer and former accountant won’t bite.

Rickards likens accumulating system debts, central bank stock market manipulations, and financial institution off-book derivative trading to piling snow on a mountain. Just one snowflake will set the avalanche off—you just never know which one that will be.

Rickards’ favorite talking point is that during the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crisis, the big banks bailed out the hedge fund. During the 2008 crisis, central banks bailed out the financial institutions.

But during the next crisis, the central banks themselves will need to be bailed out, says Rickards, possibly by the IMF and through hyper-printing of a global currency.

All of this, he says, would be highly inflationary and thus boost the value of hard assets relative to paper claims.

Monday, September 9, 2019

Rickards Doubles Down On $10,000 Gold per Ounce Call

James Rickards, who has been warning about fault lines in America’s financial system for more than a decade, is one of the country’s most forward economic thinkers.

The prolific writer mixes with big bank board members, CIA spooks, and grubby miners in the Val D’Or Quebec pits.

After four major works—including Currency Wars, The Death of Money, The Road to Ruin, and The New Case for Gold—you’d think he’d run the gamut.

In his latest book, Aftermath, Rickards updates readers on his thinking and doubles down on his forecast that gold prices, up 25% since we published his initial prognosis in 2016, will hit USD $10,000 per ounce.

An innovative investment strategy: 10% invested in physical gold

Rickards believes that the U.S. economy is already in a depression as defined by John Maynard Keyes, which is a sustained period of sub-par economic growth.

This fact is masked by the reality that U.S. statistical agencies have redefined the way they calculate the unemployment rate, which would in fact be above 10% using previous methodologies.

Rickards’ key message—which makes him a perennial favorite at gold conferences (including, full disclosure: numerous Sprott events)—is that investors should hold 10% of their investable assets in gold, to act as a hedge against coming catastrophe.

This, he says, will come from a variety of factors ranging from a 60% stock market crash, to multiple decades of economic stagnation, to the collapse of major U.S. banks.

Rickards says financial institutions are far more vulnerable than they appear, because much of their derivatives trading is now done through clearinghouses whose debts they are collectively liable for.

Longer-term, America will be particularly hard-hit if oil begins to be priced in IMF-issued special drawing rights, as Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey combine to force accelerated de-dollarization.

The ultimate hedge

In Aftermath, Rickards assigns greater probability to deflationary pressures than he did in previous works, and thus recommends a 30% cash allocation to enable investors to profit from any downturns, with the balance of the portfolio going into equities.

Rickards figures that by using this “barbell” investment strategy, investors will be protected against wild portfolio fluctuations during a time when, for most investors, return of investment is a bigger priority than return on investment.

For example, if gold prices were to fall 20%, an investor who held 10% of his portfolio in gold would register a related setback from the category worth only 2% of his overall holdings.

On the other hand, due to gold’s counter-cyclical properties, a fall in prices would suggest that the investor’s other asset classes are doing much better...

- Source, Sprott Money Blog, read more here

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Robert Kiyosaki & James Rickards: Our Forecast for the Economy Moving Forward

The increasing intersection of geopolitics and economics presents new challenges to investors.

Jim Rickards joins Robert & Kim to discuss his latest work into predictive analytics. Find out the real risks to your wealth and separate the hype from what’s important.

Sunday, September 1, 2019

Jim Rickards: Road to Ruin, Animated Book Summary

The Road to Ruin is Jim Rickards new book about the elites plan for the next financial crisis. 

Building on his previous two books (Currency Wars, and Death of the Dollar (which is more accurately referred to as ""The Likely Severe Loss of Confidence of the Current International Monetary System and it's Likely Replacements & What You Can Do To Protect Your Savings"") this book explores how the next crisis will actually play out. 

Why it won't be solved by injecting more liquidity (as in 2008), but will rather be addressed with something cryptically referred to as ICE-9.

- Source, Economics Decoded

Monday, August 26, 2019

James Rickards: The Rapid Accumulate of Gold Reserves, Systemic Risk Grows

ABC Bullion interviewed Jim Rickards, Economist and New York Times Best Selling Author, on 19th August 2019 just before his keynote presentation at our National Conference: A Global Case for Gold. After a personalised tour of ABC Refinery’s operations, Jim kindly made time to cover a number of topics including:

Why has China has recently restricted gold imports? 

– Is the dollar shortage in China and other emerging markets a systemic risk to the global economy?

– What is the future for Australia when its key security partner, being the US, is in a developing cold war with China, its top economic partner? 

– As the world’s second largest gold producer with most of that going to China, how does that complicate Australia balancing it’s relationship between US and China? 

– With Russia looking eastwards and firming its relationship with China do they risk being seen as the junior partner? What do you think about their rapid accumulation of gold reserves and what message does that send to the rest of the world? 

– What is the role of special drawing rights in the future? Can they compete with gold as a supra national reserve asset for central banks? 

– Gold has been in a stealth bull market since 2015, Jim sees the way clear to $2,000 an ounce. 

– Comments on the gold:silver ratio.

The interview was filmed in front of the world's first fully automated bullion bar production line, recently commissioned at ABC Refinery’s facility in Sydney.

- Source, ABC Bullion

Friday, August 23, 2019

James Rickards Exclusive: Prepare Now to Survive the Aftermath of the Next Global Financial Crisis

Our latest guest is Jim Rickards, New York Times best-selling author of Currency Wars, The Death of Money and The Road to Ruin. 

We spoke with James about his latest book, Aftermath, and how we could prepare to survive the aftermath of the next global financial crisis.

- Source, SBTV

Monday, August 19, 2019

Jim Rickards: What the World Will Look Like after the Next Financial Crisis

There are dark clouds forming over the global economy and the bull run in markets could be getting long in the tooth.

Jim Rickards lays out what he sees coming and how the world will look after the next financial crisis unfolds.

For perspective on this and what the financial world could look like after the next crisis, BNN Bloomberg speaks with Jim Rickards, author of "Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos."

- Source, BNN