Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Jim Rickards: This is Why Gold is Going to Hit $5000 Soon


Jim Rickards discusses recent events, the reckless actions of the Federal Reserve and why gold bullion is destined to move higher.

Are targets such as $5,000 per oz realistic, or is Jim Rickards just being hyperbolic? He soundly believes in his estimates and explains exactly how he got to these numbers.

Reckless money printing is not going to stop anytime soon and in fact is speeding up as you read this.

A global reckoning is coming.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

James Rickards: How I View Gold, How I View Money

I actually view it as money, and I’ll expand on that a little bit.

Although, how I view it is one thing, but how the world views it is another. In other words, you want to take into account different ways people look at gold and think about gold.

If you’re going to own it or going to store wealth in it, again I think it’s a pure form of money, but not everyone agrees with that. It’s important to understand how other people think about it.

On that note, I call gold a chameleon. Sometimes gold trades like a commodity. Sometimes it trades like an investment, and sometimes it trades like money. It’s like a chameleon. You put a chameleon on a green leaf, it turns green. You put it on a tree trunk, it turns brown. It adapts to its circumstances. Gold is often thought of as a commodity. It does trade on commodity exchanges, I understand that, and it tends to be included in commodity industries. The common understanding is gold is a commodity in commodity trade.

I really don’t think that’s correct. The reason is that the definition of a commodity, it’s a generic substance, it could be agricultural or a mineral or come from various sources, but it’s sort of a generic undifferentiated substance that’s input into something else. Copper is a commodity, we use it for pipes. Lumber is a commodity, we use it for construction. Iron ore is a commodity, we use it for making steel. Gold actually isn’t good for anything except money.

Gold is probably the best form of money, but it’s not really good for anything else. People don’t run around the world and dig up gold because they want to coat space helmets on astronauts or make ultra-thin wires. Gold is used for that, but that’s a very small portion of the application. People point to jewelry and say, “There’s a different application,” but I think of jewelry as wearable wealth. No better example than an Indian bride for example where they might have four or five pounds of 18 karat gold necklaces around their necks, and it’s very stunning and maybe attractive, but they consider it to be their wealth. So it’s really just a wearable form of wealth.

So I don’t really differentiate between jewelry and bullion in terms of the monetary gold. So I don’t think of gold as a commodity for that reason. It’s not really input into any process or industrial process, but nevertheless we have to understand that it does sometimes trade like a commodity.

As far as being an investment is concerned, that’s the most common usage. People say, “Well, I’m investing in gold,” or, “I’m putting part of my investment toward bullion gold.” Again, I don’t really think of gold as an investment. I understand that it’s priced in dollars, and the dollar value can go up, and that will give you some return, but to me that’s more a function of the dollar than it is a function of gold. In other words, if the dollar gets weaker, sure the dollar price of gold is going to go up or as has happened recently, if the dollar gets stronger, then the dollar price of gold may go down.

So if you’re privileging the dollar as the measure of all things, then it looks like gold is going up and down, but the way I think of it is I think of gold by weight. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold. If I have an ounce of gold today, and I put it in a drawer, and I come back a year from now and take it out, I still have an ounce of gold. In other words it didn’t go up or down. The dollar price may have changed, but to me that’s the function of the dollar, not a function of gold. I don’t really think of it as an investment.

That goes to one of the point I make in my book. One of the criticisms of gold, and I don’t think it is a criticism, it’s just a fact is that gold has no yield. You hear it from Warren Buffet, you hear it from others, and that’s true, but I kind of shrug and say, “Well yeah, but gold is not supposed to have a yield because it’s money.” Just reach into your wallet or your purse and pull out a dollar bill and hold it up in front of you, and ask yourself what’s the yield? Well there is no yield. The dollar bill doesn’t have any yield. It’s just a dollar bill, the way a gold coin is a gold coin.

If you want yield, you have to take some risks. You can put the money, put that dollar in the bank, and the bank might pay you a quarter of 1% or something, not very much, but now it’s not money anymore. People think of their money in a bank deposit as money, but it really isn’t money. It’s an unsecured liability of an occasionally insolvent financial institution. The risk may be low, I’m not saying the risk is high or you ought to pull all your money out of the bank, but I am saying that there’s some risk, and that’s why you get a return. Of course, you can take more risk in the stock market or the bonds market and get higher returns. The point is, to get a return you have to take risk. Gold doesn’t have any risk. It’s just gold, and it doesn’t have any return. It’s not supposed to. I don’t really think of it as an investment.

So that brings me to the third part of the chameleon characteristic, which is money. And that’s what gold is. Gold is money. It has no risk. It has no yield. It is the store of wealth. Classic definition, medium of exchange, unit of account. And that’s important.

So the way I think of gold right now, I think of it as money. I think it’s in competition with the dollar, the euro, the yen, the Swiss franc, and other forms of money, bitcoin for that matter, they’re all forms of money. And they’re competing for the subjective preference of people who need money and want to store wealth and I think gold’s doing very well in that context.

Friday, September 18, 2020

James Rickards: The U.S. Might Seek to Confiscate China's Dollar Reserves

James Rickards, famous CIA-affiliated author, recently released on Twitter that the United States might seek to confiscate or restrict China’s ability to use their $1.2 Trillion of Dollar reserves, in retaliation for intentionally spreading the virus worldwide. 

The economic damage to the American economy, and the loss of American lives has been blamed in part on a lack of transparency from China about the true nature and origins of the virus. 

Others do not share the same confidence that it is clearly known where the virus came from, nor are they certain that it was shared with the intent to cause harm. 

Half of the American political apparatus seems to be blaming the current administration, while the other half lays the blame primarily upon China. 

In any event, this concern about losing access to these reserves might be contributing to China’s desire to use them to make purchases sooner rather than later.

While that may be a concern unique to China, there are other concerns that should weigh heavily on us all. 

With the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of increasing inflation and letting it run for an extended period, we don’t need theories from a famous author to recognize the risks associated with holding Dollars. 

The Chinese don’t either. We should consider following their lead when it comes to what to do with our own Dollar reserves. 

For those who feel it is inappropriate for Americans to take cues from a foreign power about what to do with their own currency, we need look no further than large American banks and investment managers. 

Major players such as Warren Buffet, Ray Dalio, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Bank of America, Ohio Pension Fund, and many others have been allocating Billions to precious metals bullion and securities.

- Source, US Gold Bureau

Thursday, September 10, 2020

The Luckiest Country on Earth

GOD looks after fools, drunkards and the United States of America, said Germany’s Iron Chancellor — Otto von Bismarck.

Of these, we conclude God looks most jealously after the United States of America.

America absorbs more divine favor than the most foolish fool… or the drunkest drunkard.

In quiet moments we often marvel. We marvel, that is, that we are so fortunate as to reside in this Eden, this El Dorado, this Elysium.

Consider:

God filled two oceans — one Atlantic, one Pacific — to moat it off from marauders.

Against its land borders north and south He dropped two bantamweights.

He blessed it with rich, fertile soil. Vast tracts of bountiful land. An extended capillary system of internal waterways. Natural harbors from which to send things out… and to take things in.

What other nation has enjoyed such natural, God-granted riches?
God’s Less Favored Nations
England or Japan may have its points. Yet each is an island nation lacking critical resources.

Germany is squeezed between the French and Russian vice.

Its flat geography and absence of natural barriers render it eternally vulnerable to invasion from either direction.

France — meantime — is eternally vulnerable to Germany.

Russia too is massively vulnerable to uninvited visitors… as history documents richly. And despite its immense bulk it is boxed in by winter ice that chokes its coasts.

What of China?

The Celestial Kingdom

China believes it is the Celestial Kingdom, uniquely favored by God. Yet we are not half-convinced it is true.

Its Great Wall was required to be great for a reason.

And off its coast lurks a chain of fortresses that bottle it in — South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines — all of which ally with God’s chosen nation.

But let us extend our investigation beneath the equator. How about Brazil?

“Brazil is the country of the future,” runs the old saw — and “always will be.”

Large hunks of it are lawless jungle. It lacks arable land. Its primary cities are isolated dots.

The list of second- and third-raters runs on.

No… God has sat America on Earth’s throne.

Has He given it a Baltimore… and a Cleveland?

Has He peopled its capital with rogues, rascals, cadges, chiselers, grifters and swindlers?

Well friends, maybe He has. Yet even God Almighty must be granted space for error.

He has nonetheless showered America with such immense natural extravagance… only Americans themselves could make a botch of the place.

And it appears they are determined to do precisely that…
Was It Worth It?

The free and the brave have frozen their economy to dodge a bug that murders under 1% of its victims.

This mass incarceration has no parallel in all of history.

The damage is heavy. Perhaps mighty.

Second-quarter GDP came collapsing down at a negative 32.9% annualized rate. Millions and millions were heaved from their jobs.

No quarter of the Great Depression could even approach it.
2019 Economic Levels in 2025

Our own Jim Rickards, meantime, projects the United States economy will not attain 2019 levels until 2025.


The reality is, the economy’s in very bad shape. The idea that we’re going to bounce back out of this with all this pent up demand is nonsense. The data is already indicating we’re in a recovery, yes. But if you fall into a 50 foot hole and climb 10 feet up, you’re still 40 feet in the hole.

We’re not going to see 2019 levels of output until 2023 at the earliest. We’re not going to see 2019 low levels of unemployment until probably 2025. We’re not getting back there for three or four or maybe five years. So we’re looking at a long, slow recovery.

And that’s if things don’t get worse from here. But they could, especially if we get a deadly second wave (of the coronavirus).

We’ve climbed 10 feet out of the hole. Unfortunately, we could find ourselves right back at the bottom before too long.

Are Americans willing to sink 10 feet down again?

Sunday, September 6, 2020

The New Red Peril Represents a Golden Opportunity

Contrary to much politically motivated, media-fueled paranoia about Russia, the former Soviet Union – with a shrinking population and a GDP smaller than the market capitalization of Apple – poses no serious threat to U.S. economic preeminence.

China, by contrast, is a rising superpower that could in time topple the U.S. dollar’s world reserve status. That could also signal the end of U.S. geopolitical hegemony.

The Chinese Communist Party is playing a long game. Even as conflicts with the administration of President Donald Trump escalate on multiple fronts, Chinese officials are looking ahead to a post-Trump world order.

President Trump said in a Fox News interview Sunday, “If Biden is elected, China will own our country.”

Trumpian hyperbole? Perhaps.

But China evidently does have an actual stake in the Biden campaign.

According to a recent report from the U.S. government’s National Counterintelligence and Security Center, “We assess that China prefers that President Trump – whom Beijing sees as unpredictable – does not win reelection. China has been expanding its influence efforts ahead of November 2020 to shape the policy environment in the United States, pressure political figures it views as opposed to China’s interests, and deflect and counter criticism of China.”

In other words, China may be actively trying to sway the election for Biden.

It’s not difficult to imagine why Beijing would like to see Trump defeated. No modern U.S. President has been more openly critical of the regime or engaged in more direct actions to thwart some of its economic objectives.

Hopes of an amicable resolution to the trade war were dashed after the Wuhan coronavirus spread to American cities.

Since then, the Trump administration has moved to ban the Chinese-controlled smartphone app TikTok and de-list Chinese companies from stock exchanges. The U.S. closed China’s consulate in Houston, and China retaliated by kicking out some U.S. diplomats and journalists.

So far, however, China has continued to retain more than $1 trillion in holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. (At the same time, though, China has been stockpiling huge amounts of gold.)

The world’s second largest economy still relies heavily on U.S. dollars for banking and trade with other countries. That dollar reliance will change in the years ahead if China gets its way.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission recently noted in a Communist Party publication, "In an international monetary system dominated by the U.S. dollar, the unprecedented, unlimited quantitative easing policy of the U.S. actually consumes the creditworthiness of the dollar and erodes the foundation of global financial stability.”

It added, "The world may once again be pushed to the verge of a global financial crisis."

Chinese authorities need only sit back and wait for the U.S. dollar to steadily lose credibility on the world stage. The U.S. government is running a record-high budget deficit on top of what was already the world’s biggest debt load.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is running Quantitative Easing on full blast with a vow to increase the rate of inflation (i.e., currency depreciation).

Neither Trump nor Biden offer any plausible solution to America’s financial predicament. Americans face a future of more borrowing and more printing… until America’s pain-free ability to do so expires along with the Federal Reserve Note’s privileged status.

Famed economist Nouriel Roubini wrote in a column Monday, “If the coming decades bring what many have already called the ‘Chinese century, the dollar may well fade as the yuan (also known as the renminbi) rises. Weaponization of the dollar via trade, financial, and technology sanctions could hasten the transition.”

Beijing is developing a digital yuan that could help accelerate international use. It’s unlikely, however, that a global “yuan standard” will emerge immediately to replace King dollar.

China has credibility issues of its own, including human rights abuses, opaque capital markets, and unreliable economic data.

The ultimate alternative to a fiat currency standard for both individuals and nations is gold.

While neither China nor the United States is likely to declare a return to a gold standard, global markets could effectively impose one by revaluing the price of gold to reflect what would be required to back currencies.

For example, geopolitical and economic forecaster Jim Rickards sees gold rising in the years ahead to reflect a price, in terms of Federal Reserve Notes, that would be necessary to back all the currency in circulation. Based on current money supply figures, he sees gold needing to go to at least $15,000/oz.

Rickards’ $15,000/oz target may seem at first glance to be outlandish. But is it any more outlandish than the Dow Jones Industrials trading at over 28,000 right now? Or Apple shares commanding a $2 trillion market value? Or total stock market capitalization being 170% of GDP?

An excessively inflated stock market is but a symptom of underlying monetary excesses. When the party on Wall Street finally comes to an end, investors may come to realize that in this environment cash isn’t king – whether in the form of dollars or yuan.

Gold and silver are.

- Source, FX Street

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Rickards: Central Banks Driving the Price of Gold


James Rickards needs little introduction. His latest piece for The Daily Reckoning is an excellent ‘bigger picture’ look at gold and particularly after last night’s Fed announcement which was almost exactly what we reported yesterday.