Monday, August 30, 2021
Thursday, August 26, 2021
Sunday, August 22, 2021
Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Gold Standard vs Fiat Money, 50 Years Later: Are We Better Off?
In 1971, President Richard Nixon formally unpegged the U.S. dollar from gold, meaning the greenback was no longer convertible into bullion.
Daniela Cambone speaks with best-selling author Jim Rickards about the U.S. economy post the gold standard to answer the most important question: are we better off?
- Source, Stansberry Research
Tuesday, August 10, 2021
Jim Rickards: On the Verge of the Most Destructive War Since WWII?
And there’s no shortage of threats in the world. Perhaps the most pressing right now is China’s aggressive posturing in East Asia. It’s not just China and the U.S.
The world’s three largest economies — the U.S., China and Japan — may be squaring off for the most destructive and costly war since the end of World War II.
The main protagonists will be China and the U.S. The cause of war will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which may be coming much sooner than the world expects.
China would start the war with an invasion across the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. would be obliged to come to the defense of Taiwan and take measures to disable the Chinese fleet and its air support. But, Japan is no bystander.
A glimpse at a map shows that if Taiwan were in Communist China’s hands, Japan’s own sea lanes would be threatened, including its access to imported oil. Japan has its own island disputes with China. If China were to capture Taiwan, Japan’s islands in the East China Sea would likely be the next to fall.
The U.S. could fall back to a line of islands, including Guam, Hawaii and the Aleutians, but no fallback is possible for Japan. If China seizes Taiwan and the U.S. falls back, Japan would be under the thumb of China, and they know it.
Of course, a fallback by the U.S. would be an enormous blow to U.S. credibility, as well as its economic power. That’s why an alliance of the U.S. and Japan against China to defend Taiwan (along with Taiwan’s own formidable defense capability) is the most likely response to a Chinese amphibious assault.
The world’s three largest economies — the U.S., China and Japan — may be squaring off for the most destructive and costly war since the end of World War II.
The main protagonists will be China and the U.S. The cause of war will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which may be coming much sooner than the world expects.
China would start the war with an invasion across the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. would be obliged to come to the defense of Taiwan and take measures to disable the Chinese fleet and its air support. But, Japan is no bystander.
A glimpse at a map shows that if Taiwan were in Communist China’s hands, Japan’s own sea lanes would be threatened, including its access to imported oil. Japan has its own island disputes with China. If China were to capture Taiwan, Japan’s islands in the East China Sea would likely be the next to fall.
The U.S. could fall back to a line of islands, including Guam, Hawaii and the Aleutians, but no fallback is possible for Japan. If China seizes Taiwan and the U.S. falls back, Japan would be under the thumb of China, and they know it.
Of course, a fallback by the U.S. would be an enormous blow to U.S. credibility, as well as its economic power. That’s why an alliance of the U.S. and Japan against China to defend Taiwan (along with Taiwan’s own formidable defense capability) is the most likely response to a Chinese amphibious assault.
“Wolf Warrior” Diplomacy
The question for the world is whether China will get the message and refrain from attacking Taiwan. Unfortunately, signs point in the opposite direction. China has left its non-threatening style of diplomacy in the past.
Today, China pursues “Wolf Warrior diplomacy,” named after a popular Chinese movie that features aggressive Navy SEAL-style tactics as practiced by Peoples’ Liberation Army commandos.
China has come out of its shell and seeks regional hegemony to be followed by global hegemony. It is aggressively pushing on its neighbors in India, Myanmar, and the six nations that surround the South China Sea. Taiwan is the prize, and China is preparing to seize it.
This attack will be Xi Jinping’s legacy and his attempt to rival the reputation of Mao Zedong. Will Team Biden be able to see it coming?
U.S. investors should not take Chinese restraint for granted. Allocations to cash, gold and U.S. Treasury notes will preserve wealth when the worst happens.
The question for the world is whether China will get the message and refrain from attacking Taiwan. Unfortunately, signs point in the opposite direction. China has left its non-threatening style of diplomacy in the past.
Today, China pursues “Wolf Warrior diplomacy,” named after a popular Chinese movie that features aggressive Navy SEAL-style tactics as practiced by Peoples’ Liberation Army commandos.
China has come out of its shell and seeks regional hegemony to be followed by global hegemony. It is aggressively pushing on its neighbors in India, Myanmar, and the six nations that surround the South China Sea. Taiwan is the prize, and China is preparing to seize it.
This attack will be Xi Jinping’s legacy and his attempt to rival the reputation of Mao Zedong. Will Team Biden be able to see it coming?
U.S. investors should not take Chinese restraint for granted. Allocations to cash, gold and U.S. Treasury notes will preserve wealth when the worst happens.
- Source, The Daily Reckoning via Jim Rickards
Saturday, August 7, 2021
James Rickards: It’s NOT a Conspiracy
Philosophers and analysts use a principle called Occam’s Razor (sometimes Ockham’s Razor) to solve difficult problems. It says that when you are confronted with two possible solutions to a problem, one complicated and one simple, it’s usually better to select the simple solution.
There’s always some attraction to the complicated solution because humans like intrigue and plot twists. But statistically, the simple solution is more likely to be correct and therefore the one that analysts should prefer unless contrary evidence presents. This approach is useful in dealing with conspiracy theories.
Yes, real conspiracies exist (such as the plot to assassinate JFK), and analysts must be alert to the possibility. But most so-called conspiracies have much simpler explanations that are more likely to be correct.
One of the most potent drivers of coordinated political action is not a deep, dark conspiracy. It’s usually just the result of like-minded individuals cooperating to achieve the same goal.
There’s always some attraction to the complicated solution because humans like intrigue and plot twists. But statistically, the simple solution is more likely to be correct and therefore the one that analysts should prefer unless contrary evidence presents. This approach is useful in dealing with conspiracy theories.
Yes, real conspiracies exist (such as the plot to assassinate JFK), and analysts must be alert to the possibility. But most so-called conspiracies have much simpler explanations that are more likely to be correct.
One of the most potent drivers of coordinated political action is not a deep, dark conspiracy. It’s usually just the result of like-minded individuals cooperating to achieve the same goal.
It’s Groupthink, Not Conspiracy
If the political players all think alike and agree on goals, you don’t need a conspiracy. Just let them go to work every day and communicate with each other, and you’ll get the coordinated result without the inevitable twists and turns of a conspiracy.
That’s a good thing to bear in mind when considering the current administration. 23, top Biden administration officials all worked at the same consulting firm called WestExec Advisors. These officials include Press Secretary Jen Psaki, Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
For those who may be unfamiliar, “WestExec” is a reference to West Executive Avenue, a non-public road that runs between the West Wing of the White House and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.
The West Wing is not that large and only has a few choice offices plus the Situation Room, the Roosevelt Room (for larger meetings) and the Cabinet Room, which is smaller. Most officials who say they “work in the White House” actually work in the Eisenhower Building, which means they walk across West Executive Avenue when they have meetings with top Biden officials.
The WestExec Advisors name is a play on that kind of insider status of the long list of former WestExec principals who are now running the country. (Don’t look to Biden as the source of power; he’s not mentally competent and does what the WestExec crowd or the rest of the Biden family tell him to do).
If the political players all think alike and agree on goals, you don’t need a conspiracy. Just let them go to work every day and communicate with each other, and you’ll get the coordinated result without the inevitable twists and turns of a conspiracy.
That’s a good thing to bear in mind when considering the current administration. 23, top Biden administration officials all worked at the same consulting firm called WestExec Advisors. These officials include Press Secretary Jen Psaki, Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
For those who may be unfamiliar, “WestExec” is a reference to West Executive Avenue, a non-public road that runs between the West Wing of the White House and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.
The West Wing is not that large and only has a few choice offices plus the Situation Room, the Roosevelt Room (for larger meetings) and the Cabinet Room, which is smaller. Most officials who say they “work in the White House” actually work in the Eisenhower Building, which means they walk across West Executive Avenue when they have meetings with top Biden officials.
The WestExec Advisors name is a play on that kind of insider status of the long list of former WestExec principals who are now running the country. (Don’t look to Biden as the source of power; he’s not mentally competent and does what the WestExec crowd or the rest of the Biden family tell him to do).
A Threat to National Security
So, with all of this power emerging from one firm, does that mean there’s a conspiracy among the alums to control the world?
Not really. But, it points to a bigger problem, which is the lack of cognitive diversity. The WestExec crowd all went to top schools, had top jobs in previous administrations, exhibit high IQs, and boast lots of credentials.
If you look at their resumes, you’ll see they all went to the same schools, had the same professors and pursued the same career paths. With few exceptions, it’s all Harvard, Yale and Columbia with a small dose of Stanford or Chicago for good measure.
They all went to law school or got PhDs and worked for the same small set of law firms or consulting firms. Then they all worked in a small set of government agencies, including the State Department, National Security Council or the Intelligence Community.
They all think alike. That’s an acute weakness because if they all look at things the same way, they will all miss the real dangers coming that don’t fit into their mental molds. Lack of cognitive diversity is a fatal weakness.
As a leader, you should always be willing to lower the average IQ if it means you can increase the range of viewpoints. At least someone might point out it’s raining to a group that’s too buried in briefing books to look out the window. This uniform mindset is itself a danger to national security. Sooner than later, a threat will arise that none of them will see coming.
So, with all of this power emerging from one firm, does that mean there’s a conspiracy among the alums to control the world?
Not really. But, it points to a bigger problem, which is the lack of cognitive diversity. The WestExec crowd all went to top schools, had top jobs in previous administrations, exhibit high IQs, and boast lots of credentials.
If you look at their resumes, you’ll see they all went to the same schools, had the same professors and pursued the same career paths. With few exceptions, it’s all Harvard, Yale and Columbia with a small dose of Stanford or Chicago for good measure.
They all went to law school or got PhDs and worked for the same small set of law firms or consulting firms. Then they all worked in a small set of government agencies, including the State Department, National Security Council or the Intelligence Community.
They all think alike. That’s an acute weakness because if they all look at things the same way, they will all miss the real dangers coming that don’t fit into their mental molds. Lack of cognitive diversity is a fatal weakness.
As a leader, you should always be willing to lower the average IQ if it means you can increase the range of viewpoints. At least someone might point out it’s raining to a group that’s too buried in briefing books to look out the window. This uniform mindset is itself a danger to national security. Sooner than later, a threat will arise that none of them will see coming.
- Source, James Rickards via the Daily Reckoning
Wednesday, August 4, 2021
Jim Rickards: Why Do the Most Heavily Vaccinated Countries Report the Most New Cases?
Again, the new outbreak is being blamed on the Delta variant, but this conclusion appears to be more of a name blame game than a solid scientific conclusion. If the Delta variant actually is the cause of an expanding outbreak, it raises doubts about the efficacy of the vaccines being used. (Unlike the U.S., there is no significant resistance to taking the vaccine, what is called “vaccine hesitancy” in Australia).
Dr. Robert Malone, a pioneer in the field of experimental mRNA vaccines, has produced evidence showing that the most-vaccinated countries in the world are experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases, while the least-vaccinated countries aren’t.
“In Europe,” he said, “we are seeing surges at many places where most of the population has already been vaccinated. At the same time, the 15 least vaccinated countries don‘t seem to face any problem adding…
“Emirates [has the] highest vaccination rate in the whole world. They just experienced their second highest peak since [the] pandemic began.”
Don’t forget, again, these are experimental vaccines. They’re not vaccines in the traditional sense. These vaccines are more like genetic therapy.
There have been thousands of deaths and at least tens of thousands of sometimes serious side effects reported from these vaccines. You won’t just hear about it in the mainstream media. It seems like there’s a concerted effort to ban any suggestion that these vaccines could be in any way harmful for some people.
Greece is banning unvaccinated people from public spaces. In France, unvaccinated people face up to six months in jail for entering a bar or restaurant without a mask.
Here at home, Los Angeles County is rimposing indoor mask mandates, regardless of vaccination status. Former Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius said Americans who refuse the vaccine shouldn’t be allowed to return to work and should face severe restrictions on their freedom of movement.
Whether or not you take the vaccine is your decision. It may prove beneficial for the majority of people. But you should at least be made aware that there are risks involved so you can make a fully informed decision.
Instead, they just keep saying everyone needs to be vaccinated, even kids, who are more likely to die from the vaccine than the virus.
Dr. Robert Malone, a pioneer in the field of experimental mRNA vaccines, has produced evidence showing that the most-vaccinated countries in the world are experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases, while the least-vaccinated countries aren’t.
“In Europe,” he said, “we are seeing surges at many places where most of the population has already been vaccinated. At the same time, the 15 least vaccinated countries don‘t seem to face any problem adding…
“Emirates [has the] highest vaccination rate in the whole world. They just experienced their second highest peak since [the] pandemic began.”
Don’t forget, again, these are experimental vaccines. They’re not vaccines in the traditional sense. These vaccines are more like genetic therapy.
There have been thousands of deaths and at least tens of thousands of sometimes serious side effects reported from these vaccines. You won’t just hear about it in the mainstream media. It seems like there’s a concerted effort to ban any suggestion that these vaccines could be in any way harmful for some people.
Greece is banning unvaccinated people from public spaces. In France, unvaccinated people face up to six months in jail for entering a bar or restaurant without a mask.
Here at home, Los Angeles County is rimposing indoor mask mandates, regardless of vaccination status. Former Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius said Americans who refuse the vaccine shouldn’t be allowed to return to work and should face severe restrictions on their freedom of movement.
Whether or not you take the vaccine is your decision. It may prove beneficial for the majority of people. But you should at least be made aware that there are risks involved so you can make a fully informed decision.
Instead, they just keep saying everyone needs to be vaccinated, even kids, who are more likely to die from the vaccine than the virus.
Fauci and the Media Should Follow Their Own Advice
Let’s get back to lockdowns specifically. It’s not just Australia. You can look to South Africa, Europe and Japan. Japan has just banned spectators at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (already delayed since last year). Now, there might be valuable tradeoffs between economic damage and virus control if these policies worked.
The problem is, the science shows they don’t work. Dr. Fauci and the media are always saying to “follow the science.” They should follow their own advice.
Masks are practically useless, partly because they are not worn properly; they’re made of inferior materials and the virus itself is much smaller than the weave on the mask fabric, which means the virus can easily pass through the mask. It’s like putting up a shark net to keep flies out. Masks are almost entirely symbolic.
Meanwhile, lockdowns don’t work, partly because they confine people to indoor spaces where contagion is much more likely to spread.
Lockdowns also don’t work because all that happens is that you infect people in a confined location (the lockdown zone), instead of another location (where you might otherwise travel), but you still infect people. By the way, there are virtually no documented cases of outdoor transmission. It all happens indoors.
The infected individuals might change, but there’s no net increase or decrease in the total number infected.
But if lockdowns work, why are we on our fifth wave of infections with 607,000 dead in the U.S. alone? Lockdowns do one thing and one thing only — they destroy economies. Yet politicians and bureaucrats continue to push them, despite the evidence.
The bottom line is, lockdowns could be returning to a theater near you. Investors should take note.
Let’s get back to lockdowns specifically. It’s not just Australia. You can look to South Africa, Europe and Japan. Japan has just banned spectators at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (already delayed since last year). Now, there might be valuable tradeoffs between economic damage and virus control if these policies worked.
The problem is, the science shows they don’t work. Dr. Fauci and the media are always saying to “follow the science.” They should follow their own advice.
Masks are practically useless, partly because they are not worn properly; they’re made of inferior materials and the virus itself is much smaller than the weave on the mask fabric, which means the virus can easily pass through the mask. It’s like putting up a shark net to keep flies out. Masks are almost entirely symbolic.
Meanwhile, lockdowns don’t work, partly because they confine people to indoor spaces where contagion is much more likely to spread.
Lockdowns also don’t work because all that happens is that you infect people in a confined location (the lockdown zone), instead of another location (where you might otherwise travel), but you still infect people. By the way, there are virtually no documented cases of outdoor transmission. It all happens indoors.
The infected individuals might change, but there’s no net increase or decrease in the total number infected.
But if lockdowns work, why are we on our fifth wave of infections with 607,000 dead in the U.S. alone? Lockdowns do one thing and one thing only — they destroy economies. Yet politicians and bureaucrats continue to push them, despite the evidence.
The bottom line is, lockdowns could be returning to a theater near you. Investors should take note.
- Source, The Daily Reckoning
Sunday, August 1, 2021
James Rickards: It’s Starting to Feel Like Last March
Today was the stock market’s worst day in months, as the Dow lost over 900 points midday. It ended up losing 725 after a late rally, but still a bad day. Fears about a global resurgence of COVID cases and its potential economic impact are being blamed.
Are we headed for another round of ineffective and economically destructive lockdowns? Let’s jump in…
The pandemic is like the proverbial bad penny — it keeps showing up. As recently as June, experts (who have turned out to be not-so-expert) claimed that the pandemic was finally under control.
This did not mean there were no new cases or fatalities. Of course, there were some. It meant that the case rate and fatalities rate had fallen so low that the disease was something we could just learn to live with but did not have to fear. Mask mandates and lockdown orders were things we could put behind us. Life was finally getting back to normal.
Return of the New Abnormal?
Now, all of that happy talk is in doubt. A distinct fifth wave of increasing cases and fatalities has emerged, both in the U.S. and globally. Here in the U.S., the daily caseload has increased from only 3,700 on July 4, to almost 52,000 new cases on July 16, a 1,300% increase.
The U.S. has been averaging almost 30,000 new cases a day over the last seven days (ending Friday), up from around 11,000 cases a day a month ago, according to the CDC.
Fatalities have not increased as dramatically so far, partly because of better treatments and partly because any fatality increase tends to lag the caseload increase. Still, an increase in fatalities is to be expected.
This increase is being blamed on the “Delta variant” of the virus. Notwithstanding a lack of clear understanding of the science behind the increasing caseload, politicians and incompetent public health officials are demanding the same failed policy responses as they did in prior waves.
Authorities in the U.S. and elsewhere are reintroducing lockdowns, quarantines and mask mandates. These useless policies are being implemented in Australia, especially in Sydney.
On July 14, 2021, the Premier of Australia’s New South Wales extended the lockdown of Sydney by at least 14 days.This new lockdown is the latest in a series of lockdowns that have affected Australia’s largest city and financial center.
The Sydney lockdown is currently set to expire on July 30, but the Premier said the lockdown will only be ended when the number of new cases is close to zero.
There’s no assurance that will happen anytime soon. In fact, based on reliable mathematical models of how new outbreaks spread, (so-called waves, which can be local, national or global), no material reduction in the new case load should be expected before the end of August.
Are we headed for another round of ineffective and economically destructive lockdowns? Let’s jump in…
The pandemic is like the proverbial bad penny — it keeps showing up. As recently as June, experts (who have turned out to be not-so-expert) claimed that the pandemic was finally under control.
This did not mean there were no new cases or fatalities. Of course, there were some. It meant that the case rate and fatalities rate had fallen so low that the disease was something we could just learn to live with but did not have to fear. Mask mandates and lockdown orders were things we could put behind us. Life was finally getting back to normal.
Return of the New Abnormal?
Now, all of that happy talk is in doubt. A distinct fifth wave of increasing cases and fatalities has emerged, both in the U.S. and globally. Here in the U.S., the daily caseload has increased from only 3,700 on July 4, to almost 52,000 new cases on July 16, a 1,300% increase.
The U.S. has been averaging almost 30,000 new cases a day over the last seven days (ending Friday), up from around 11,000 cases a day a month ago, according to the CDC.
Fatalities have not increased as dramatically so far, partly because of better treatments and partly because any fatality increase tends to lag the caseload increase. Still, an increase in fatalities is to be expected.
This increase is being blamed on the “Delta variant” of the virus. Notwithstanding a lack of clear understanding of the science behind the increasing caseload, politicians and incompetent public health officials are demanding the same failed policy responses as they did in prior waves.
Authorities in the U.S. and elsewhere are reintroducing lockdowns, quarantines and mask mandates. These useless policies are being implemented in Australia, especially in Sydney.
On July 14, 2021, the Premier of Australia’s New South Wales extended the lockdown of Sydney by at least 14 days.This new lockdown is the latest in a series of lockdowns that have affected Australia’s largest city and financial center.
The Sydney lockdown is currently set to expire on July 30, but the Premier said the lockdown will only be ended when the number of new cases is close to zero.
There’s no assurance that will happen anytime soon. In fact, based on reliable mathematical models of how new outbreaks spread, (so-called waves, which can be local, national or global), no material reduction in the new case load should be expected before the end of August.
- Source, James Rickards
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