James Rickards: It’s NOT a Conspiracy

Philosophers and analysts use a principle called Occam’s Razor (sometimes Ockham’s Razor) to solve difficult problems. It says that when you are confronted with two possible solutions to a problem, one complicated and one simple, it’s usually better to select the simple solution.

There’s always some attraction to the complicated solution because humans like intrigue and plot twists. But statistically, the simple solution is more likely to be correct and therefore the one that analysts should prefer unless contrary evidence presents. This approach is useful in dealing with conspiracy theories.

Yes, real conspiracies exist (such as the plot to assassinate JFK), and analysts must be alert to the possibility. But most so-called conspiracies have much simpler explanations that are more likely to be correct.

One of the most potent drivers of coordinated political action is not a deep, dark conspiracy. It’s usually just the result of like-minded individuals cooperating to achieve the same goal.

It’s Groupthink, Not Conspiracy

If the political players all think alike and agree on goals, you don’t need a conspiracy. Just let them go to work every day and communicate with each other, and you’ll get the coordinated result without the inevitable twists and turns of a conspiracy.

That’s a good thing to bear in mind when considering the current administration. 23, top Biden administration officials all worked at the same consulting firm called WestExec Advisors. These officials include Press Secretary Jen Psaki, Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.

For those who may be unfamiliar, “WestExec” is a reference to West Executive Avenue, a non-public road that runs between the West Wing of the White House and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.

The West Wing is not that large and only has a few choice offices plus the Situation Room, the Roosevelt Room (for larger meetings) and the Cabinet Room, which is smaller. Most officials who say they “work in the White House” actually work in the Eisenhower Building, which means they walk across West Executive Avenue when they have meetings with top Biden officials.

The WestExec Advisors name is a play on that kind of insider status of the long list of former WestExec principals who are now running the country. (Don’t look to Biden as the source of power; he’s not mentally competent and does what the WestExec crowd or the rest of the Biden family tell him to do).

A Threat to National Security

So, with all of this power emerging from one firm, does that mean there’s a conspiracy among the alums to control the world?

Not really. But, it points to a bigger problem, which is the lack of cognitive diversity. The WestExec crowd all went to top schools, had top jobs in previous administrations, exhibit high IQs, and boast lots of credentials.

If you look at their resumes, you’ll see they all went to the same schools, had the same professors and pursued the same career paths. With few exceptions, it’s all Harvard, Yale and Columbia with a small dose of Stanford or Chicago for good measure.

They all went to law school or got PhDs and worked for the same small set of law firms or consulting firms. Then they all worked in a small set of government agencies, including the State Department, National Security Council or the Intelligence Community.

They all think alike. That’s an acute weakness because if they all look at things the same way, they will all miss the real dangers coming that don’t fit into their mental molds. Lack of cognitive diversity is a fatal weakness.

As a leader, you should always be willing to lower the average IQ if it means you can increase the range of viewpoints. At least someone might point out it’s raining to a group that’s too buried in briefing books to look out the window. This uniform mindset is itself a danger to national security. Sooner than later, a threat will arise that none of them will see coming.

- Source, James Rickards via the Daily Reckoning

Jim Rickards: Why Do the Most Heavily Vaccinated Countries Report the Most New Cases?

Again, the new outbreak is being blamed on the Delta variant, but this conclusion appears to be more of a name blame game than a solid scientific conclusion. If the Delta variant actually is the cause of an expanding outbreak, it raises doubts about the efficacy of the vaccines being used. (Unlike the U.S., there is no significant resistance to taking the vaccine, what is called “vaccine hesitancy” in Australia).

Dr. Robert Malone, a pioneer in the field of experimental mRNA vaccines, has produced evidence showing that the most-vaccinated countries in the world are experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases, while the least-vaccinated countries aren’t.

“In Europe,” he said, “we are seeing surges at many places where most of the population has already been vaccinated. At the same time, the 15 least vaccinated countries don‘t seem to face any problem adding…

“Emirates [has the] highest vaccination rate in the whole world. They just experienced their second highest peak since [the] pandemic began.”

Don’t forget, again, these are experimental vaccines. They’re not vaccines in the traditional sense. These vaccines are more like genetic therapy.

There have been thousands of deaths and at least tens of thousands of sometimes serious side effects reported from these vaccines. You won’t just hear about it in the mainstream media. It seems like there’s a concerted effort to ban any suggestion that these vaccines could be in any way harmful for some people.

Greece is banning unvaccinated people from public spaces. In France, unvaccinated people face up to six months in jail for entering a bar or restaurant without a mask.

Here at home, Los Angeles County is rimposing indoor mask mandates, regardless of vaccination status. Former Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius said Americans who refuse the vaccine shouldn’t be allowed to return to work and should face severe restrictions on their freedom of movement.

Whether or not you take the vaccine is your decision. It may prove beneficial for the majority of people. But you should at least be made aware that there are risks involved so you can make a fully informed decision.

Instead, they just keep saying everyone needs to be vaccinated, even kids, who are more likely to die from the vaccine than the virus.

Fauci and the Media Should Follow Their Own Advice

Let’s get back to lockdowns specifically. It’s not just Australia. You can look to South Africa, Europe and Japan. Japan has just banned spectators at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (already delayed since last year). Now, there might be valuable tradeoffs between economic damage and virus control if these policies worked.

The problem is, the science shows they don’t work. Dr. Fauci and the media are always saying to “follow the science.” They should follow their own advice.

Masks are practically useless, partly because they are not worn properly; they’re made of inferior materials and the virus itself is much smaller than the weave on the mask fabric, which means the virus can easily pass through the mask. It’s like putting up a shark net to keep flies out. Masks are almost entirely symbolic.

Meanwhile, lockdowns don’t work, partly because they confine people to indoor spaces where contagion is much more likely to spread.

Lockdowns also don’t work because all that happens is that you infect people in a confined location (the lockdown zone), instead of another location (where you might otherwise travel), but you still infect people. By the way, there are virtually no documented cases of outdoor transmission. It all happens indoors.

The infected individuals might change, but there’s no net increase or decrease in the total number infected.

But if lockdowns work, why are we on our fifth wave of infections with 607,000 dead in the U.S. alone? Lockdowns do one thing and one thing only — they destroy economies. Yet politicians and bureaucrats continue to push them, despite the evidence.

The bottom line is, lockdowns could be returning to a theater near you. Investors should take note.

- Source, The Daily Reckoning

James Rickards: It’s Starting to Feel Like Last March

Today was the stock market’s worst day in months, as the Dow lost over 900 points midday. It ended up losing 725 after a late rally, but still a bad day. Fears about a global resurgence of COVID cases and its potential economic impact are being blamed.

Are we headed for another round of ineffective and economically destructive lockdowns? Let’s jump in…

The pandemic is like the proverbial bad penny — it keeps showing up. As recently as June, experts (who have turned out to be not-so-expert) claimed that the pandemic was finally under control.

This did not mean there were no new cases or fatalities. Of course, there were some. It meant that the case rate and fatalities rate had fallen so low that the disease was something we could just learn to live with but did not have to fear. Mask mandates and lockdown orders were things we could put behind us. Life was finally getting back to normal.

Return of the New Abnormal?

Now, all of that happy talk is in doubt. A distinct fifth wave of increasing cases and fatalities has emerged, both in the U.S. and globally. Here in the U.S., the daily caseload has increased from only 3,700 on July 4, to almost 52,000 new cases on July 16, a 1,300% increase.

The U.S. has been averaging almost 30,000 new cases a day over the last seven days (ending Friday), up from around 11,000 cases a day a month ago, according to the CDC.

Fatalities have not increased as dramatically so far, partly because of better treatments and partly because any fatality increase tends to lag the caseload increase. Still, an increase in fatalities is to be expected.

This increase is being blamed on the “Delta variant” of the virus. Notwithstanding a lack of clear understanding of the science behind the increasing caseload, politicians and incompetent public health officials are demanding the same failed policy responses as they did in prior waves.

Authorities in the U.S. and elsewhere are reintroducing lockdowns, quarantines and mask mandates. These useless policies are being implemented in Australia, especially in Sydney.

On July 14, 2021, the Premier of Australia’s New South Wales extended the lockdown of Sydney by at least 14 days.This new lockdown is the latest in a series of lockdowns that have affected Australia’s largest city and financial center.

The Sydney lockdown is currently set to expire on July 30, but the Premier said the lockdown will only be ended when the number of new cases is close to zero.

There’s no assurance that will happen anytime soon. In fact, based on reliable mathematical models of how new outbreaks spread, (so-called waves, which can be local, national or global), no material reduction in the new case load should be expected before the end of August.

- Source, James Rickards

Jim Rickards: Your $1,000 Deposit Is Only Worth $975

CBCDs use the same underlying distributed ledger technology that cryptocurrencies use. But unlike cryptos, CBCDs aren’t new currencies. They’ll still be dollars, euros, yen or yuan, just as they are today. But these currencies will only be digital; there won’t be any paper money or cash allowed. Only the format and payment channels will change.

Balances can be held in digital wallets or digital vaults without the use of traditional banks. A blockchain is not needed; the CBDC ledger can be maintained in encrypted form by the central bank itself without the need for bank accounts or money market funds.

In the future, customers will discover that paper money deposits will be accepted at a discount to face value when depositing to the new digital system. A deposit of $1,000 may be credited as $975.00 when put into the digital system, if it was after an arbitrary cut-off date, for example.

A system of such discounts (really taxes or penalties) was actually suggested by a prominent economist at a Fed symposium a few years ago. That economist was later nominated for a seat on the Fed board of governors.

As always, the new digital banking system will be promoted on the basis of convenience, ease of use and lower costs. Who needs bank accounts, checks, account statements, deposit slips, and the other clunky features of a banking relationship when you can go completely digital?

In reality, customers will discover that their digital assets are at risk for seizure or taxation not only for criminal reasons (that’s true today) but for political, medical or social reasons.

Could China’s Social Credit System Come to the U.S.?

Such a “social credit” system is being implemented in China. China already uses facial recognition software, mobile phone GPS tracking and the purchase of plane or train tickets to track their citizens. This surveillance can be used to detect anti-state activities and to arrest dissidents, or anyone who doesn’t strictly follow government orders.

Elements of China’s social credit system could end up being used here in the U.S. It might not be exactly the same, but it would nonetheless punish those who don’t comply with government decrees.

“Hmmm, the official record says you haven’t been vaccinated. That’s unfortunate. We’re sorry, but…”

An all-digital cash system could be used to impose fees on those who cannot prove they have received a COVID vaccine or some other medicine. This would amount to universal forced vaccination, although it would surely be imposed under some other more benign-sounding name.

If cash is no longer permitted, savers will be forced into buying land, gold, silver, or other tried-and-true ways of preserving wealth without exposing it to government pirates. The Chime account freezes are the shape of things to come.

Meanwhile, the big banks are also happy to kick you out of the banking system.

- Source, The Daily Reckoning via James Rickards

James Rickards: Do You Have This Smartphone App?

The stock market bounced back today after yesterday’s major losses. “Buy the dip” is alive and well.

But today, I want to revisit a topic I haven’t addressed much lately due to the pandemic, the inflation debate, and many other topics that have taken center stage.

I’m talking about the war on cash.

I’ve warned for a long time that governments are forcing citizens into digital forms of money so that they can more easily freeze accounts, seize assets and impose negative interest rates. As long as cash is an option, you can take your cash outside the system and avoid digital freezes.

Cash prevents central banks from imposing negative interest rates because if they did, people would withdraw their cash from the banking system.

If they stuff their cash in a mattress, they don’t earn anything on it; that’s true. But at least they’re not losing anything on it.

Once all money is digital, you won’t have the option of withdrawing your cash and avoiding negative rates. You will be trapped in a digital pen with no way out.

The movement toward a cash-free society is gathering momentum, but it’s not entirely here yet.

Access Denied!

That’s not stopping some financial institutions from taking your money anyway. For example, a banking app called Chime has been seizing customer accounts and not allowing them to log on or access their funds.

Chime has 12 million customers. So far, 970 customer complaints have been filed, of which 197 specifically mention “closed account” as the cause of the complaint. Many of the remaining 723 complaints involve closed accounts, although the regulatory records do not categorize them that way.

In some cases of individual retail customers, the amount frozen was $10,000 or more. The complaints are being resolved slowly and inconsistently. In the meantime, the customers’ funds are blocked.

The only surprise in this story is that these kinds of account blocks have not happened sooner or on a larger scale. Still, this is the tip of the spear; far more account freezes of this kind are coming.

Chime is a retail application used mainly on smartphones. But, central banks are working from the top down to create central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that will enable bank regulators to do the same thing.

- Source, James Rickards

James Rickards: I Never Thought That This Day Would Come

Jim Rickards interview on economy, money printing, taxes, inflation and more. 

- Source, Success Attraction

Jim Rickards: Here's What You Should Do If The Next BIG DEPRESSION Comes

Jim Rickards: Central Banks Just Created a Gold Buying Opportunity

Jim Rickards sits down with Shae Russell to discuss inflation, interest rates, and why you need to have some gold in your investment portfolio. 

Jim Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, speaker, media commentator, and New York Times bestselling author on matters of finance and precious metals. 

He was the principal negotiator of the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management by the US Federal Reserve in 1998. 

His clients include institutional investors and government directorates. 

He is the author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, The New Case for Gold and “The New Great Depression, Winners and Losers in Post-Pandemic World”.

- Source, ABC Bullion

Jim Rickards: The Shocking Truth About the Future of the Economy

Listen to Jim Rickard’s predictions about the economy and markets. 

The biggest economic disruptor in over 70 years the world has ever seen that will make central banks a laughing stock – and how to capitalize on this unique window of opportunity.

In this recording, James Rickards had to address the elephant in the room: “Where is the stock market crash you predicted?” 

His answer will shock you. 

Plus, you’ll discover what he had to say about cryptocurrencies… his comments will have you shaking in your boots…

- Source, Goko Group

Jim Rickards: A Collapse Is Coming

Jim Rickards ( sometimes referred to as James Rickards ) is a popular financial commentator, often known for his interesting contrarian point of view on current market and global economic conditions. 

Jim Rickards is an American lawyer, speaker, media commentator, and author on matters of finance and precious metals such as gold and silver. He is the author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis (2011) and five other books.

This is How it Will Go: The New Great Depression Explained, with Jim Rickards

The end of the pandemic draws ever closer. Would you like to know what the“new normal” will look like? If you do, Jim Rickards is the man you should be listening to.

- Source, Southbank Investment Research

James Rickards: The Coming After Shock and the Dangers of Junk Science

But governments were not the only culprits in giving bad advice and implementing ruinous policies during the pandemic. Scientists were just as negligent. In fact, governments used “the science,” however flawed the science turned out to be, to justify their draconian policies.

Often, government and scientists worked hand-in-hand, with science offering flawed projections and governments taking the bad advice and using it to force destructive policies on the public.

There are many examples of this. Perhaps none are worse than the Imperial College-London (ICL) models.

Any model is only as good as the assumptions behind it. Real scientists know that no model is perfect. Good scientists continually update assumptions to compensate for output that deviates from observations.

The best scientists will discard a defective model and start over to produce a better one. These best practices are often ignored by scientists, who are more interested in attention, power or research grants.

That seems to have been the case with regard to the ICL pandemic models rolled out in the early stages of the pandemic and used by governments all over the world to guide policy.

The ICL chief epidemiological modeler, physicist Neil Ferguson, produced forecasts that said the U.S. would suffer 2.2 million deaths; the actual number is 581,056 as of today.

ICL’s model said the UK would suffer 500,000 deaths; that actual number is 127,609. ICL’s estimates for deaths in Taiwan were overstated by 1,798,000%.

Egregious overstatements also occurred with regard to Sweden, South Korea, and Japan. If that were the whole story, it would amount to nothing more than a discredited scientist and his institution. But, ICL’s badly flawed projections had momentous real-world consequences.

Governments around the world grabbed onto the ICL nightmare scenarios to impose lockdowns that had even more nightmarish consequences. This was a case of bad science leading to even worse public policy.

The evidence is clear today that lockdowns, masks and social distancing don’t do any good. Our own Centers for Disease Control (CDC) grossly overstated the risk of outdoor transmission of the virus.

The only policy recommendations that made sense were washing your hands and staying home if you had symptoms. There were no lockdowns during the Hong Kong flu of 1968 or the Asian flu of 1957.

Let’s hope we don’t suffer another pandemic of the kind we’ve just been through. If we do, let’s hope cooler heads prevail and don’t destroy the economy again for no good reason.

The Coming Aftershock

But despite the happy talk coming out of Washington and Wall Street, the full economic effect of lockdowns hasn’t hit yet.

In response to the pandemic, the Fed printed over $4 trillion of new base money. Congress approved $3 trillion of new deficit spending under President Trump and $1.9 trillion under President Biden, with another $4 trillion of deficit spending on the way later this year.

This massive monetary and fiscal response to the pandemic could be called the visible part of the bailout. There was also an invisible part.

The invisible bailout did not consist of direct handouts or checks; it consisted of forbearance and grace periods on loan and lease obligations. Student loan borrowers were told they did not have to pay interest on their loans. Tenants were told they did not have to pay rent. The rent moratorium was backed up by an eviction moratorium. If tenants did not pay rent, landlords were powerless to evict the tenants.

Meanwhile, the landlords had to keep paying mortgages and property taxes, which put 100% of the economic burden of the pandemic adjustment on the landlords’ shoulders. What was the statutory or legal authority for these orders?

Some were justified by explicit statutes, but many economic relief orders were issued by the CDC under a broad interpretation of its powers during a public health crisis. Now, litigation challenging these orders is making its way through the courts.

A judge in the U.S. District Court has just ruled that the CDC eviction moratorium is an illegal use of CDC’s public health powers. This is the first of many moratoria and grace periods that are set to expire.

The full economic impact of the pandemic has never been felt, partly because so much debt and rent were held in abeyance. As those back payments become due, a new way of defaults will ensue. But the media isn’t paying much attention to that.

The economic damage lockdowns have caused will not be undone in weeks or months. Much of the lost wealth is permanent. It will be inter-generational.

Growth will return, but it will be weak. Investors should go into the post-pandemic world with clear vision.

The government was wrong in the policy response, and they’re wrong again in their rosy scenario forecasts.

- Source, Jim Rickards