Thursday, September 10, 2020

The Luckiest Country on Earth

GOD looks after fools, drunkards and the United States of America, said Germany’s Iron Chancellor — Otto von Bismarck.

Of these, we conclude God looks most jealously after the United States of America.

America absorbs more divine favor than the most foolish fool… or the drunkest drunkard.

In quiet moments we often marvel. We marvel, that is, that we are so fortunate as to reside in this Eden, this El Dorado, this Elysium.

Consider:

God filled two oceans — one Atlantic, one Pacific — to moat it off from marauders.

Against its land borders north and south He dropped two bantamweights.

He blessed it with rich, fertile soil. Vast tracts of bountiful land. An extended capillary system of internal waterways. Natural harbors from which to send things out… and to take things in.

What other nation has enjoyed such natural, God-granted riches?
God’s Less Favored Nations
England or Japan may have its points. Yet each is an island nation lacking critical resources.

Germany is squeezed between the French and Russian vice.

Its flat geography and absence of natural barriers render it eternally vulnerable to invasion from either direction.

France — meantime — is eternally vulnerable to Germany.

Russia too is massively vulnerable to uninvited visitors… as history documents richly. And despite its immense bulk it is boxed in by winter ice that chokes its coasts.

What of China?

The Celestial Kingdom

China believes it is the Celestial Kingdom, uniquely favored by God. Yet we are not half-convinced it is true.

Its Great Wall was required to be great for a reason.

And off its coast lurks a chain of fortresses that bottle it in — South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines — all of which ally with God’s chosen nation.

But let us extend our investigation beneath the equator. How about Brazil?

“Brazil is the country of the future,” runs the old saw — and “always will be.”

Large hunks of it are lawless jungle. It lacks arable land. Its primary cities are isolated dots.

The list of second- and third-raters runs on.

No… God has sat America on Earth’s throne.

Has He given it a Baltimore… and a Cleveland?

Has He peopled its capital with rogues, rascals, cadges, chiselers, grifters and swindlers?

Well friends, maybe He has. Yet even God Almighty must be granted space for error.

He has nonetheless showered America with such immense natural extravagance… only Americans themselves could make a botch of the place.

And it appears they are determined to do precisely that…
Was It Worth It?

The free and the brave have frozen their economy to dodge a bug that murders under 1% of its victims.

This mass incarceration has no parallel in all of history.

The damage is heavy. Perhaps mighty.

Second-quarter GDP came collapsing down at a negative 32.9% annualized rate. Millions and millions were heaved from their jobs.

No quarter of the Great Depression could even approach it.
2019 Economic Levels in 2025

Our own Jim Rickards, meantime, projects the United States economy will not attain 2019 levels until 2025.


The reality is, the economy’s in very bad shape. The idea that we’re going to bounce back out of this with all this pent up demand is nonsense. The data is already indicating we’re in a recovery, yes. But if you fall into a 50 foot hole and climb 10 feet up, you’re still 40 feet in the hole.

We’re not going to see 2019 levels of output until 2023 at the earliest. We’re not going to see 2019 low levels of unemployment until probably 2025. We’re not getting back there for three or four or maybe five years. So we’re looking at a long, slow recovery.

And that’s if things don’t get worse from here. But they could, especially if we get a deadly second wave (of the coronavirus).

We’ve climbed 10 feet out of the hole. Unfortunately, we could find ourselves right back at the bottom before too long.

Are Americans willing to sink 10 feet down again?